On May 7, Putin was sworn in as President of the Russian Federation for the fourth time. This has brought Russia-US relations at the freezing point into the era of "Putin 4.0". Economic sanctions, military containment, and regional games have become an unavoidable whirlpool in Russia-US relations. Some analysts said that in the short to medium term, Russia-US relations are hard to surprise and may even continue to deteriorate.
The next six years will be a great test for Putin and Russia in charge. Can this big ship named "Russia", with Putin at the helm, break the ice between Russia and the United States and realize the rhetoric of "give me 20 years and return you a strong Russia"? Putin gave a tough guy’s answer: now Russia is like a phoenix reborn from nirvana. Nothing will prevent Russia from determining its own future, and no one can stop the "Russian" ship from moving forward. Self-reliance is the last word.
Moscow, May 7, 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the inauguration ceremony held in Moscow Kremlin.
In the face of the US "sanctions storm", Russia concentrates on practicing its internal strength and regards economic development as its core driving force.
Since the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, the United States and Europe have successively imposed economic sanctions on Russia. Especially since US President Trump took office in 2017, he has set off a series of "sanctions storms" against Russia. Western sanctions have made the external environment for Russia to achieve its own development and breakthrough more and more severe.
Under the circumstance that "sanctions" seem to have become the background color of Russia’s relations with the United States and Europe, how Russia uses its existing resource advantages to solve the most urgent internal development problems is a major problem that Putin will continue to solve in his new term. At present, although the Russian economy has improved slightly, it still faces great challenges.
In his inaugural speech, Putin pointed out that it is necessary to develop the economy, pay attention to internal affairs and people’s livelihood, and honor pre-election promises. For example, to implement reform measures, activate economic vitality and achieve economic and technological breakthroughs, especially to enhance Russia’s competitiveness in key areas, increase investment in infrastructure construction, accelerate the introduction of digital technology, promote urban and rural modernization, and improve social welfare.
Alexei Mu Xin, director of the Russian Political Information Center, believes that the conflict between Russia and the United States is an economic conflict, not a war conflict, and both sides have suffered certain losses. He said that since the Ukrainian crisis, the United States has used sanctions to try to launch an economic "blitzkrieg" against Russia, expecting Russia to be soft under sanctions and comprehensive pressure and accept American conditions. Facts have proved that the American attempt has failed.
In response to the US military containment, Russia "shows muscles" strongly, but it has not given up the dialogue channel.
Almost at the same time that Putin began his fourth presidential term, US Naval Operations Secretary John Richardson said on the 4th that he would restart the US Navy’s Second Fleet, which was dissolved in 2011, in order to curb the expansion of Russian maritime power and deal with Russia’s security threats.
In fact, Russia’s military ability to resist foreign aggression is relatively strong. It has more resources to exert its military power and arouse the fear of the other side than to confront the United States and Europe economically and diplomatically, and it is relatively easy.
Putin’s State of the Union address this year showed a series of Russian latest military scientific and technological achievements in a long space, which not only shocked the United States, but also shouted to western countries that its economic sanctions and military containment against Russia "didn’t work".
Curtov, editor-in-chief of Russia’s National Strategic Issues magazine, said that in view of the fact that the United States regards Russia as its main strategic competitor, its policy toward Russia is becoming increasingly tough, and it is engaged in political and military confrontation with Russia, as well as the development of the situation in Syria, in order to cope with this situation, Russia may spend huge sums of money on national defense. Curtov said that although Russia has made great achievements in the fields of aviation, space and weapons, it has not developed enough in the fields of electronic information, which makes it impossible for Russia to win quickly and with little damage in the face of military conflicts. Moreover, in the short to medium term, such conflicts between Russia and the United States will continue.
In 2010, Russia and the United States signed a new version of the Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, which set a new upper limit for the strategic nuclear weapons of the two countries. The treaty came into force in February of the following year and is valid for 10 years. Mu Xin believes that the further development of the Russian-American conflict may lead to the failure of the negotiations on updating this treaty.
Russia is also actively seeking dialogue in the face of the US’s artificial hostility towards Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said on May 3, 2018 that if the United States can match its words and deeds on some issues, then Russia is willing to negotiate with the United States on the arms race and other global challenges.
In regional conflicts and great power games, Russia has actively carried out multilateral diplomacy and demonstrated its geopolitical ambitions.
In recent years, the practice of international affairs has proved that the handling or solution of some international problems cannot be separated from Russia’s active participation. Washington post said that Putin’s foreign policy reflected the rising geopolitical ambition of Russia. In addition, according to the latest poll released by Russia on the 7th, most Russian citizens believe that Putin’s main achievement is to restore Russia’s status as a great power.
Mu Xin believes that despite the constant regional game between Russia and the United States, Russia-US relations are unlikely to change in the short term, but Russia has made significant changes in other diplomatic directions and actively enhanced its influence. In Europe, Russia will work closely with some European countries including Germany. He believes that different from the attitude of most NATO members towards Russia, some European countries prefer a moderate policy of "looking north", so Russia will resume and strengthen contacts with these countries.
In the Middle East, Russia may strengthen its ties with Israel. As an important participant in Middle East affairs, and with the help of close cooperation with Iran, Russia can play a role as a link between Iran and Israel. Around the conflict between the Iranian nuclear deal and the United States, Israel and Iran, Russia can mediate and avoid the escalation of the conflict between the two sides.
In East Asia, Russia will further strengthen cooperation with China. At the same time, strengthen contacts and business contacts with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. Relations with India and Indonesia are also an important part of Russia’s Asian policy, and strengthening cooperation with eastern countries may be one of the characteristics of Russia’s foreign policy in the next few years.
The next six years will not be easy for Putin and his team. However, as Putin emphasized, a difficult test is a springboard and a brand-new starting point for Russia’s development.
(Compilation: Wang Yinuo’s written materials come from: Xinhuanet, People’s Daily, Reference News, Global Times, Zhongxin.com, Overseas Network, etc.)