On October 28, pedestrians passed the European Union flag, the British flag and the placard supporting Britain’s "Brexit" outside the Parliament Building in London, England. On the same day, European Council President Tusk said on social media Twitter that the 27 member States of the European Union have agreed to the British application to postpone the "Brexit" period to January 31, 2020. Xinhua News Agency/Midland
On December 12th, Britain will hold a general election, three years ahead of schedule. In the context of "Brexit" dragging all parties to lose patience, this election is considered to be of great significance. The Johnson administration expects the general election to be "broken", the opposition party spares no effort to win over voters, and the outside world expects the general election to bring good news to Brexit. However, the only certainty about Britain’s future is still uncertainty. Looking back: Britain has been really hurt since the referendum on "Brexit"; Looking ahead, it is difficult to cure the injury of "Brexit" in the general election.
“‘ Brexit ’ There is still uncertainty. "
"The result of this election is not difficult to predict. Judging from the current situation, if there is no accident, the Conservative Party can win, and of course the advantage may be weak. " Cui Hongjian, director and researcher of the European Institute of China Institute of International Studies, told this reporter, "In the eyes of the Johnson administration, early elections are ‘ Break the game ’ Means, because there is no big reshuffle in parliament, the Johnson administration’s fast ‘ Brexit ’ It can’t be achieved. At present, the opposition between public opinion is serious. He no longer expects to win the majority vote by pleasing voters, but calls on voters with a clear stand as the banner. At present, it seems that the Johnson administration’s strategy is relatively successful compared with the Labour Party’s position. "
However, this does not mean that the prospect of "Brexit" will become clear.
Cui Hongjian added: "This is ‘ Brexit ’ Forced election. However, unless the Conservative Party wins by an absolute majority, it can lead the parliament to pass Prime Minister Johnson’s ‘ Brexit ’ Scheme, otherwise, ‘ Brexit ’ There is still uncertainty. "
"Johnson once said, ‘ Brexit ’ The transition period will not be extended beyond 2020, but this statement is unrealistic. We believe that the negotiations between the UK and the EU on future trade agreements may take longer and must be compromised. " Christina Huo Po, chief global strategist of Jing Shun, believes that the compromise is that Britain will either extend the "Brexit" period or leave the EU without any agreement at the end of the transition period, so there is still a possibility of "Brexit" without agreement.
The election situation in the British general election is still changing. The latest poll conducted by polling agency ICM for Reuters shows that the support lead of British Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative Party has narrowed compared with the opposition Labour Party. According to the results of the poll released on November 25th, the support of the Conservative Party dropped by 1 percentage point to 41%. The Labour Party rose by 2 percentage points to 34%. "This election is the first time that Britain has held an election in December since 1923, and it will be one of the most unpredictable elections in many years." This is the evaluation of this election by many British media.
"A dangerous mess"
According to Reuters, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that Britain is now a dangerous mess. Neither the Labour Party led by Corbin nor the Conservative Party led by current Prime Minister Johnson should win the parliamentary election on December 12th. He even pointed out that both parties were just peddling illusions, which was "a real mess".
Britain has been really hurt since the referendum on Brexit was held.
Bill Dividi, a senior economist at ABN Amro, said that the political deadlock caused by Britain’s "Brexit" has dragged down the British economy, and the damage caused is increasing and more difficult to reverse. Since the referendum, British consumption growth has increased from 2015— In 2016, the average level of 3.3% declined, and in 2017— It was only 1.7% in 2019. In 2019, the investment growth in the UK is expected to be zero, which is much lower than that in 2015— The average level of 3.0% in 2017.
Britain’s foreign relations are also under great pressure. Recently, 15 countries, including the United States and Australia, complained that the "Brexit" deadlock affected their trade with Britain and demanded compensation from Britain and the European Union. European Council President Tusk warned that Britain can only play a global role as part of the European Union. After "Brexit", Britain will become a "second-class country" and it will be difficult to participate in the competition of big countries.
"From an economic point of view, ‘ Brexit ’ The uncertainty has terminated the growth momentum of the British economy to some extent. Although the British economy has not experienced a cliff-like decline, the growth rate has been among the best in the EU before the referendum and almost at the bottom now. From a social point of view, instability has increased. ‘ Brexit ’ Take up a lot of resources, resulting in many major events that Britain should have done to develop the economy can not be promoted. From the perspective of international influence, ‘ Brexit ’ Let Britain have more autonomy, but lose the multiplier effect and initiative of collective bargaining in the EU. It is doubtful that Britain can’t hold a group with other European countries, and how big its voice and influence are in regional and international affairs. " Cui Hongjian said.
"The prospect is hardly optimistic."
Over the past three years or so, the British people have spent their time in confusion. Sadly, the road has no end in sight.
The International Monetary Fund released the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook Report in October, which lowered the UK’s economic growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.2% this year. In fact, due to the long-delayed Brexit, a series of economic data in the UK have not performed well recently, and the physical fields such as service industry, manufacturing industry and corporate investment have declined. The analysis generally points out that even if British Prime Minister Johnson wins in the general election as he wishes, he will still face additional economic shocks including capital withdrawal and trade difficulties, and the British economic prospects are hardly optimistic. "Moreover, ‘ Brexit ’ The subsequent tariff increase directly affects people’s expectations for future life and tends to be pessimistic. " Cui Hongjian said.
"Split" has now become a pain in Britain’s heart. "Around ‘ Brexit ’ Or ‘ Stay in Europe ’ ，‘ Hard Brexit ’ Or ‘ Soft Brexit ’ There has been a well-defined public opinion opposition in British society. " Cui Hongjian said. In addition, the problems in Scotland and Northern Ireland are not optimistic. The Scottish National Party, which is expected to win a majority in the Scottish Parliament, plans to hold a second referendum on independence in 2020. Most Scots supported staying in Europe in the 2016 referendum. Therefore, once Britain "leaves the European Union", the result of the Scottish independence referendum will be extremely pessimistic. The new version of the "Brexit" agreement wants to establish a new customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and the border issues that were blurred in the past must be clarified, which may also cause the situation in Northern Ireland to be turbulent again.
"After the election, Britain needs to concentrate on taking measures to make up for it ‘ Brexit ’ Losses, such as introducing preferential policies and optimizing the investment environment. " Cui Hongjian said, "In diplomacy, Britain also needs to be more flexible."
This is destined to be a long road. As the former British Prime Minister Brown quoted in the British Mirror said: "It is impossible to repair the growing division pattern in Britain by an election alone. It may take us a whole generation to restore the national life to normal."