Frequency of high-frequency words in the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee
Source: Xinhua News Agency, soochow securities Institute.
The just-concluded Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee deliberated and adopted "the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s Proposal on Formulating the 14th Five-year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Target for the Year 2035", which is an important document that affects the development direction of China in the next five years and also touches the nerves of the capital market.
From the communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, the main line of industrial policy emerged during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. A number of brokers and investment institutions said that in the medium and long term, "technology+consumption" is still the main line of the market and is expected to give birth to more investment opportunities. Among them, consumer, science and technology, medicine, new energy and other tracks are quite concerned by the market.
The main line of "double circulation" runs through
Tap domestic demand and consumption potential
The data shows that during the implementation of the previous five-year plan, key strategic industries will perform better relative to the overall market situation, and this correlation is still increasing with the development and perfection of the capital market. According to the data of CICC, during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, electrical equipment, mechanical equipment and medical biology greatly outperformed the market; During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the cultural media industry, which was planned as a pillar industry, led the market significantly, with an increase of 213%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 33% in the same period. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, under the guidance of the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way, as of October this year, people’s livelihood-related industries such as food and beverage, household appliances and leisure services have greatly outperformed the market.
The plenary session put forward the guiding ideology and principles that must be followed in the economic and social development during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period, in which it was clearly stated that "we should accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other". Some insiders pointed out that under the new development pattern of "double cycle", "giving full play to the growth potential and strengthening the domestic market" is particularly worthy of attention, and a strong domestic market will become the key to the construction of the domestic and international "double cycle" system.
In terms of expanding domestic demand, the plenary session proposed to adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system. It also proposed that it is necessary to smooth the domestic cycle, promote the domestic and international double cycle, comprehensively promote consumption and expand investment space. Specifically, it includes the ideas of "building a high-standard market system", "giving priority to the development of agriculture and rural areas, and comprehensively promoting rural revitalization" and "adhering to the implementation of regional major strategies, regional coordinated development strategies, and main functional areas strategies".
Chongyang investment pointed out that China’s economy and residents’ income have been cultivated by years of high-speed growth, and the conditions for boosting domestic demand have been met. Moreover, the start of the "double-cycle" system and the deepening of supply-side structural reform also need the cooperation of a strong domestic market to form an effective closed loop.
With the continuous upgrading of consumption structure, the potential of domestic demand will be continuously explored. China Merchants Securities pointed out that residents’ needs are not only satisfied with basic daily consumption such as "filling their stomachs", but also have more diversified needs for the quality, style and function of consumer products. Guotai Junan emphasized that the policy of "promoting consumption in an all-round way" is no longer a demand-side force like "home appliances going to the countryside", but a "high-quality supply", which brings opportunities for the rise of local and national brands and their substitution for overseas high-end brands.
CICC pointed out that at present, the international situation is complex and changeable, and the large consumption sectors that mainly rely on domestic demand may have a more stable performance in the next five years, such as the typical "pure domestic demand" sectors, including building materials, food and beverage, and local transportation. In addition, Northeast Securities believes that combined with the aging population trend, the demand for medical consumption will continue to be released in the future.
The "new economy" is accelerating.
Scientific and technological innovation to build the core thread
The communique of the plenary session listed "achieving a major breakthrough in key core technologies and entering the forefront of innovative countries" as the long-term goal of basically realizing socialist modernization in 2035, which attracted the attention of all parties in the market.
The reporter of the Economic Information Daily saw on the interactive platform of investors such as Interactive Exchange of Shenzhen Stock Exchange that after the announcement of the plenary session, a number of listed companies in software and information technology services were asked whether their projects or products involved the Tenth Five-Year Plan and "what plans and layouts are there for self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology".
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, said that at present, China’s technological kinetic energy continues to upgrade, and strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries have become new driving forces for economic growth. The plenary session proposed to adhere to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of China’s modernization drive and take self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology as the strategic support for national development. It is expected that the "new economy" represented by digital economy, new energy, 5G and industrial Internet will accelerate during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period.
Xie Chunsheng, an analyst at Huatai Securities, said that the core essence of technological self-improvement is the autonomy of core IT technologies, which includes several aspects: First, the autonomy of IT basic software and hardware, including the autonomy of core components such as chips, operating systems, databases, middleware and servers; Second, the autonomy of industry application software forms an IT autonomous ecosystem with the underlying software; Third, industrial software autonomy, which was neglected in the independent core technology in the past. Science and technology and innovation are expected to promote the rapid development of independent IT technology in China, and the localization of various IT links and application fields is expected to provide rare historical development opportunities for IT enterprises in China.
It is worth noting that the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Accelerating the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economic System in the New Era, issued in May this year, proposed to compile a new round of national medium-and long-term scientific and technological development plans.
Citic Securities pointed out that enterprises are the main body of scientific and technological innovation, and promoting the upgrading of industrial base and the modernization of industrial chain will further improve policies such as "first set", fiscal and taxation incentives, government procurement and financial support. The national medium-and long-term science and technology development plan (2021-2025) may be published at the end of this year or early next year, and it is expected to formulate a new batch of major national science and technology projects, and systematically sort out the strategic emerging industries and frontier fields that are supported by the key.