China Economic Net, Beijing, December 11th-On December 10th, the New Year Forum of Guanghua School of Management of Peking University was held in Beijing. Li Yining, a famous economist and honorary dean of Guanghua School of Management of Peking University, pointed out in his speech entitled "Looking for a new source of dividends" that the loss of the original dividends and the emergence of new dividends in China’s economy are a worldwide problem. The disappearance of the original "dividend" is completely understandable, and the disappearance of the original dividend should be mainly attributed to the untimely and inadequate transformation. New reform dividends, new demographic dividends, new science and technology dividends, new resources dividends and social harmony dividends have begun to emerge or will soon emerge, which is a good start. The full text is as follows.
The loss of the original dividend and the emergence of the new dividend are problems all over the world. Here, the source of the dividend will be discussed.
1. How did the original "dividend" disappear?
1. The disappearance of the original "dividend" is a normal phenomenon in the process of economic development.
The original "dividends" are suitable for the early stage of economic development. Therefore, as the economy continues to develop, the mode of economic development is bound to change, so that the disappearance of the original "dividend" is completely understandable.
2. The disappearance of the original dividend should be mainly attributed to the untimely and inadequate transformation.
If the original dividend is successfully transformed in the mode of economic development, it will also be transformed with it, so there will be no "dividend disappearance". However, it should be noted that this change should be urged and pressured by the market. In other words, if "dividends disappear" is not prepared in advance, it will cause social unrest or turbulence, because the economy will suddenly decline.
3. The disappearance of the original "dividend" is also related to nostalgia for the original "advantage" to a considerable extent.
If enterprises are always lucky enough to think that the original "advantages" will not disappear, they will embark on the road of decline. The reorganization of production factors actually depends on the reorganization of information. If you don’t understand the necessity of information reorganization, you can only lose the market.
4. Lack of innovative motivation and conditions in the economy will inevitably drag the economy into stagnation and decline.
The necessity of innovation can also be examined from another angle: without innovation, not only will there be no "dividend", but even enterprises will collapse and disappear. In other words, any region that lingers on its original "advantages" and is unwilling to transform itself will suffer the consequences.
Second, where is the new source of "dividend"?
1. New "dividends" cannot emerge spontaneously.
After the original "dividend" disappears, it is impossible for a new "dividend" to emerge spontaneously. This is because if there is no new system or new mechanism, the new "dividend" will lack the corresponding mechanism and system, and it is impossible to emerge.
2. The new source of "bonus" lies in the new system first.
This shows that there must be a new system to produce a new mechanism and a new dividend. The new system and mechanism are like a new institutional environment, which can not only give birth to new dividends, but also protect the winners of new dividends.
With insufficient capital, even the cleverest entrepreneurs are incapable. On some occasions, I am not afraid that I can’t get the funds, but I am afraid that I don’t know how to make good use of the funds after I get the funds. The difference between entrepreneurs with vision and achievements and others lies in whether they can make good use of their capital.
3. Related to this, the new source of "dividend" also comes from the vitality of hundreds of millions of people and thousands of enterprises.
So, who are the winners of the "new dividend"? They are hundreds of millions of people, that is, millions of enterprises, including enterprises with different ownership. Under the new system and mechanism, they found opportunities for development, and at the same time realized that they must seize opportunities instead of giving them up, so that they could get new dividends.
With the new system and the vitality of the masses and enterprises, new "dividends" will emerge.
How the "new dividend" emerges constantly in the economic development and leads the economy and society in a new direction can neither relax the struggle of everyone who is interested in creating and making profits, nor confine the information of getting rich and developing to a narrow circle. We must give full play to the vitality of the masses and enterprises under the encouragement of the new system.
Third, the new reform dividend should become a universal "dividend"
1. Since the "new dividend" comes from the system reform first, it should be clear what needs to be changed most in the near future.
In fact, the new reform dividend exists not only today, but also in the past, not only in a certain country or region, but also in any country or region, as long as it implements reforms in line with national conditions, it will bring certain reform dividends.
2. One of the projects that need to be reformed most in the near future is rural land ownership and agricultural industrialization.
This is the continuation of the contract system reform that began in the 1980s, but the most important thing is that the contract system in those years did not have clear property rights, and of course it was impossible to talk about rural cooperative system and agricultural industrialization. Therefore, the confirmation of rural land has actually opened up a new environment.
3. Another project that needs reform most in the near future is the structural reform on the supply side.
In the direction of enterprise reform, structural reform is very urgent. First of all, we must form dynamic, competitive and well-defined enterprises, including state-owned enterprises, state-controlled enterprises, mixed-ownership enterprises and private enterprises, so as to emerge new reform dividends. It is the structural reform of the supply side that can improve the main body of the enterprise, reduce the cost, adjust the structure, innovate and have the reform dividend.
4. After the reform of these two projects has achieved obvious results, it will bring China a reform dividend, that is, a general dividend.
The confirmation of rural land rights and the further reform since then, and the further measures after different types of enterprises become dynamic enterprises, will all bring dividends of reform. Both are equally important and indispensable, and both are the most important reforms under the new normal. This shows that the new reform dividend is a universal dividend, which is created by reformers themselves.
When discussing the new reform bonus, we must put the protection of property rights in an important position.
State-owned enterprises have clarified property rights through reform, while private enterprises should clarify property rights and protect property rights formed by private investment.
Fourth, the new demographic dividend is intangible, but its emergence can be expected.
1. The emergence of the new demographic dividend actually shows the upgrading of human capital and the new advantages it brings.
An important experience here is, "unfair education → Unfair employment → Income inequality → Life is unfair → The vicious circle of "unfairness of the next generation" will be broken, which is the premise of the new demographic dividend. The labor market will also change accordingly. Both the increase of farmers’ human capital stock and the increase of farmers’ human capital are the upgrading of farmers’ human capital.
2. In rural areas, the reform of land ownership will cause thousands of farmers to become knowledgeable and capable "professional farmers"
Through the confirmation of rural land, farmers are no longer an identity, but become a profession, or called "professional farmers." They may become "family farmers" and expand their scale through land transfer (leasing and subcontracting), or they may introduce collaborators to solve the problems of insufficient funds, insufficient agricultural technology and poor sales of agricultural products. "Returning to the city" is a new phenomenon and a new breakthrough in human capital. In this way, a new demographic dividend has emerged in rural areas.
3. Another source of the new demographic dividend is the "new craftsman spirit" brought by the promotion of vocational and technical education.
After the confirmation of rural land, farmers’ enthusiasm for going out to work has increased, and they are also relieved. This will continue to attract rural laborers to go out. However, many years’ experience since the 21st century tells people that what is lacking in society is skilled workers, not craftsmen. Therefore, the promotion of vocational education is inevitable, which is another source of the new demographic dividend.
The growth and development of scientific research team is a natural thing, which will bring new "demographic dividend" continuously.
There is no doubt that the growth and development of the scientific research team will provide a new demographic dividend. This depends on the progress of two aspects, one is the development of education and the improvement of education quality, the other is the optimal allocation of scientific research forces, mobilizing scientific talents from all walks of life, making scientific research achievements innovative and breakthrough, so that there will be a steady stream of new demographic dividends.
5. The dividend of new science and technology mainly comes from innovation, but it cannot be separated from market competition.
1. New science and technology, new technology, new equipment and new products all come from innovation, and innovation is related to different ideas.
Creativity first, then innovation and entrepreneurship. The invention of new science and technology is not equal to creativity and innovation. Creativity and invention are the business of scientists, and innovation and entrepreneurship are attributed to entrepreneurs. Scientists can be entrepreneurs, but they don’t have to be entrepreneurs.
2. Innovation can only be achieved in market competition. Under monopoly conditions, any innovation is unnecessary or even impossible.
Without market competition, innovation is impossible. Monopoly not only stifles innovation, but also stifles entrepreneurship. However, if there is no monopoly at all, only market competition, then enterprises are in a wait-and-see state, waiting for others to invent and innovate and embezzle themselves. Therefore, monopoly works, that is, we need to protect intellectual property rights for inventions and innovations and allow patents for a certain period of time.
3. The role of government in innovation mainly lies in: planning, leading, anti-monopoly, and supporting innovation subjects and activities.
Planning is the most important thing. Without planning, it is difficult to achieve achievements in scientific and technological innovation activities, especially to be at the forefront of the world. This requires the government to lead the planning. The progress of science and technology in China is evidence.
4. Innovation can’t stop, because market competition won’t stop, and competitors come from both home and abroad.
Even if scientific and technological innovation has made achievements, it cannot be ignored. Market competition has always existed, including domestic competition and international competition. Don’t worry about these competitions. Competition is both a pressure and a spur, because innovation activities will not stop.
Six, the new resource dividend is the result of innovation, but it is also inseparable from market competition.
1. The resource dividend refers to the advantages of land, minerals and water resources. Once the supply is tight, this advantage will disappear.
In the early stage of economic development, the richness of land, minerals, water resources and other resources is a reflection of the development strength of various countries on the road to industrial countries at that time. At that time, the struggle between the great powers was related to plundering cheap resources. So far, this situation has not fundamentally changed, except that the contract or joint venture is adopted to cover up the looting and monopolization.
2. The advantages of new resources come from the continuous progress of science and technology, which means that the advantages of new resources come from technological innovation.
But in any case, the original resources are in the process of exhaustion, and people constantly rely on science and technology to develop new resources. The new resource dividend is produced with the progress of science and technology. More and more achievements have been made in the research and development of scarce resources and resource substitutes. It can be considered that the new resource dividend is inseparable from the new science and technology dividend, and the new resource dividend can also be regarded as an integral part of the new science and technology dividend.
3. Water, land, minerals and other resources will not be exhausted as long as they are under the conditions of technological innovation, because there are always substitutes.
If we look at the particularity of human society, we can draw three conclusions that all resources will not be exhausted:
First, since ancient times, human society has always had the desire and countermeasures to find substitutes for scarce resources; Second, since ancient times, human society has been choosing raw materials and dietary raw materials, constantly abandoning hard-to-get resources; Third, since ancient times, human society is still using continuous migration, even long-distance migration, to avoid the dilemma of insufficient resource supply.
4. Therefore, the new resource dividend is also the product of innovation. If innovation continues, the new resource dividend will last forever.
The discovery, utilization and generation of new dividends of new resources are the guarantee for the continuous development and growth of social economy. This is important for different countries in the world. It can be said that countries that will not change the choice, development and utilization of resources will eventually fall behind and decline.
Seven, social harmony dividend is the most far-reaching dividend, which depends on cultural construction.
1. The particularity of social harmony dividend and the special way to produce social harmony dividend.
One of the particularities of social harmony dividend is that it is invisible, and it is not expressed by a certain subject’s behavior like other dividends.
The second particularity of social harmony dividend: it is formed by accumulation, or it may be formed gradually through persistent work.
The third particularity of social harmony dividend: it spreads silently, affects people silently and penetrates into people, thus forming a social atmosphere.
2. The reform of the income distribution system is actually the premise of the emergence of social harmony dividends, and so are the new measures of medical care.
To achieve social harmony, it is necessary to deepen the reform of income distribution system and solidly promote the reform of medical and health care system, both of which are closely related to people’s livelihood issues. Specifically, if the income gap in society is too large and the reform of medical care system is slow, social harmony will be affected and the social harmony dividend will not be displayed.
3. The meaning of the concept of social capital, and how to build a harmonious society, how to play the unique role of social capital.
Social capital is a kind of intangible capital, a kind of interpersonal relationship, and people trust each other. In other words, social capital comes from honesty. Without honesty, social capital does not exist, and social harmony does not exist, so it is impossible to talk about the emergence of social harmony dividends.
Social harmony dividend is the most far-reaching dividend because it is closely related to the broad masses of the people.
The emergence of social harmony dividend is actually related to all reforms. That is to say, all the reforms will eventually bring social harmony dividends. Social harmony dividend is the result of domestic economic and social development and stability.
8. In short, all new dividends depend on our creation.
1. The above-mentioned dividends of new reform, new population, new science and technology, new resources and social harmony are interrelated.
There are more than one new dividend, but all kinds of dividends have always been interrelated. As the fruits of reform, they may inspire and promote each other. This is a law, but any law must be tested in practice. In this way, the new bonus can be known by people. "Failure is the mother of success" is not completely correct, and the thinking should be changed. "Success is the mother of success" is correct.
2. All these dividends are still in the initial or imminent stage today, but this is a good start.
Just entering the 21st century, many people in China are worried that the old dividends will disappear one after another, but at this time, new reforms have begun. For example, migrant workers’ mobility, migrant workers’ learning skills, and migrant workers’ entrepreneurship have increased one after another, and new demographic dividends have emerged. Another example is that the deepening of reform, especially after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, has led to the continuous emergence of new reform dividends, new technology dividends and new resource dividends. Therefore, people’s confidence has increased.
All dividends depend on our creation, which means "from scratch" and "bringing forth the old and bringing forth the new".
"From scratch", proposing new products, new energy sources and new equipment is of course a new creation.
"Bring forth the old and bring forth the new", make the existing products have more functions, make the existing equipment more effective, and make new energy mining easier and more widely used. These are also innovations. What is important is not the reorganization of production factors, but the reorganization of information. The 21st century is an era of information reorganization.
As long as new dividends keep coming out, we don’t have to worry about our economic and social decline.
When the economy develops to a certain stage, the shortcomings of the original development mode will be reflected one after another, which is the main reason for the loss of dividends. But as long as creativity, innovation and entrepreneurship are kept, the development mode will be changed, new dividends will appear and the economy will go up to a higher level. Innovation can keep appearing at different stages of development, which is the prospect. All over the world, without exception.