标签： 上海后花园2021

[Depth] The number of tourists in Canton Road has decreased greatly, and Hong Kong is about to lose its luxury shopping paradise？

In the last month, the scene of tourists weaving on Canton Road in Hong Kong, where luxury shops gather, is no longer there.

There are no long queues in front of DIOR, GUCCI and CHANEL along the street. In the makeup area with the most crowded people in the high-end shopping mall Harbour City, the aisle that has always been crowded is rarely spacious. In Lane Crawford, only a few customers are scattered in the dense shelves.

Luxury shop assistants, who are usually very busy, are idle. Their eyes follow every passer-by, and after the guests enter the store, they follow closely and introduce each product.

Cabinets and sisters in the makeup area of Harbour City usually only care about getting goods and quotations, but now they are free to attract guests. The cabinet brother of Hermes perfume leaned hard and stuffed the test paper into the hands of passers-by

"There have been fewer guests recently, because there are fewer tourists." Coach clerk of Guangdong Road said to the interface fashion. The clerk of SAINT LAURENT in Harbour City said: "The business is average recently, so the goods will be all."

In contrast, the stores of popular brands such as LV, GUCCI and DIOR are still crowded, and the clerk said that business has been good. "But there was a long queue before, and now there is no need to queue up." GUCCI clerk said.

A pair of tourists’ mother and daughter told the interface fashion that they couldn’t get thoughtful service when shopping in Hong Kong in the past, and too many people also affected the experience. Now they can choose slowly. But for safety reasons, the original five-day tour has been compressed to three days.

The decrease in the number of tourists on Canton Road has something to do with the demonstrations that have lasted for more than two months in Hong Kong.

Yao Sirong, a member of the tourism industry of the Hong Kong Legislative Council, once said that the number of inbound tourists in Hong Kong changed from an increase in June to a decline in July due to demonstrations.

The situation in August was even more severe. The number of inbound tourists in Hong Kong dropped by 30% in the first two weeks of that month, and further dropped by 40% in the third week. This directly led to the price and occupancy rate of hotels in Hong Kong diving again and again. Last August, the occupancy rate was still 90%, and this year it fell to 50%. Many hotels had to cut their prices by half.

As of mid-August, 28 countries have issued different levels of Hong Kong tourism risk warnings. Under the heavy blow of tourism, the retail industry is also chilling.

Luxury brands in Hong Kong have been negatively affected since the beginning of the incident, and brands such as Tiffany and Hermes even went out of business for a short time. These factors have been written into the recent financial reports of major luxury goods companies.

Tiffany’s 2019 semi-annual report mentioned that in the second quarter, sales in mainland China rose by 25% year-on-year, while sales in Hong Kong recorded a double-digit decline. During this period, Hong Kong stores were closed for six days.

"(The situation in Hong Kong) has certainly done great harm to our sales. Compared with last year, our sales in Hong Kong have dropped sharply," Alessandro Bogliolo, CEO of Tiffany, said in an interview with Women’s Daily. "Except for the six days (when the store was closed), you can imagine that the other time in the second quarter is not the best time for shopping."

Mark Erceg, chief financial officer of Tiffany, warned in a conference call with analysts that if the situation in Hong Kong continues to deteriorate, the annual sales and earnings per share will even be lower than the company’s minimum expectations.

Prada still maintained a positive growth trend in the mainland market in the first half of 2019, but the overall revenue of Greater China fell by 5%, which was said in the financial report to be affected by social problems in Hong Kong.

The growth rate of kering, the parent company of GUCCI, declined in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, and the performance of Macau market also declined. According to the financial report of the group, there are two reasons for the decline in growth rate in these areas. Previously, the higher growth rate led to a high comparative base, and more importantly, the demonstrations in Hong Kong at the end of the second quarter affected business activities.

LVMH and Hermes seem to be less affected.

LVMH generally mentioned in the financial report for the first half of 2019 that DFS, a global duty-free shop under the Group, grew strongly in the Hong Kong and Macau markets, but its growth rate declined in recent months.

Hermes said that although some Hong Kong stores have experienced short-term closures, the solid customer base and huge market demand in the local market offset the losses caused by the short-term closures.

However, the demonstrations in Hong Kong became more intensive in August and September, and the normal operation of the Hong Kong International Airport was affected several times. Tourists became more cautious about traveling to Hong Kong, and the sales transcripts of luxury brands in Hong Kong in the third quarter of this year may be even worse.

Considering the current situation in Hong Kong, CHANEL announced on September 6th that it would postpone the launch of the 2019/20 early spring holiday series scheduled for November in Hong Kong.

As a barometer of luxury retail in Hong Kong, the cold and cheerless atmosphere of Guangdong Road and Harbour City once again sounded the alarm that Hong Kong had lost its shopping paradise.

In the first half of 2019, the retail sales of shopping malls in Harbour City fell by 1% to HK$ 18.497 billion. The operating profit of Times Square, another high-end shopping mall under the parent company Wharf Real Estate, also declined. As a result, the overall performance of Wharf Property was very reluctant, and its net profit decreased by 31% to HK$ 6.989 billion. The financial report said: "Demand and market conditions have weakened significantly since the beginning of the year, and the situation has become more and more severe."

Judging from the overall situation of the Hong Kong market, the retail sales of luxury goods also declined the most.

According to the data of Hong Kong Retail Management Association, the total retail sales value of Hong Kong in June fell by 6.7% year-on-year to 35.2 billion yuan, which is the fifth consecutive month of decline. Among them, the retail sales of jewelry, watches and luxury goods fell more than other categories, reaching 17.1%.

This means that it is more and more difficult for luxury goods to grow in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong’s luxury retail industry once relied on the rise of mainland tourists.

Take Harbour City, the largest high-end shopping mall in Hong Kong and the most profitable shopping mall in Asia, for example. In the ten years since 2007, thanks to the influx of mainland tourists, its sales grew at a compound annual growth rate of more than 10%, and in 2018 it reached an astonishing 24%. In 2018, the sales of Harbour City exceeded HK$ 37 billion, with an average of HK$ 100 million per day.

Looking back, the strategic position of this city in Asia has been prominent since the beginning of the 21st century.

In July 2003, the first phase of free travel for mainland residents in Hong Kong was implemented. Prior to this, there were only about 7 million tourists visiting Hong Kong last year. After the popularization of the free travel policy, this number jumped to about 45 million in ten years. During the same period, retail sales in Hong Kong soared by 184% to over HK$ 162 billion.

At that time, most luxury brands had not been widely and deeply laid out in mainland China. Hong Kong, which is tax-free, close to home, and has many famous brands, has become the best choice for mainland tourists to travel abroad and buy overseas brands in those years.

CB Richard Ellis, a commercial real estate information provider, once pointed out in "The Process of Retail Globalization" published in 2012 that Hong Kong is the hottest retail market and luxury market in the world, and its new brand presence ranks first in the world, attracting 86% of the high-end retailers interviewed.

Lian Zhihao, then a senior director of CB Richard Ellis’ store service department, said in the report: "Hong Kong’s ranking reflects its importance to luxury brands, largely because mainland visitors to Hong Kong have a continuous demand for high-end goods, and they hope to enjoy the price difference when buying luxury goods in the Hong Kong market."

Luxury brands therefore pay special attention to Hong Kong’s data in their financial reports.

Take LVMH Group as an example. In its 2015 financial report, the Hong Kong dollar was listed separately in the part showing the sales situation according to the currency proportion. In that year, sales in Hong Kong alone reached 7% of LVMH’s global sales.

When the performance of Hong Kong declines, luxury goods groups often take it out for evaluation. For example, Richemont Group said in its 2015 financial report that there were no signs of recovery in Hong Kong and Macao in the first month of the new fiscal year. Based on this, it is predicted that sales in the Asia-Pacific region may continue to be sluggish; LVMH Group also pointed out in its 2018 financial report that although the sales of Sephora’s selected retail department increased by 6% to 13.646 billion euros during the period, it could record a 12% increase if DFS’s one-time loss in terminating the franchise of Hong Kong Airport was not included.

The impact of Hong Kong’s performance on performance can be seen. Even now, going to Hong Kong is no longer the only option for mainland tourists to buy luxury goods.

PricewaterhouseCoopers pointed out at the beginning of this year that although large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong High-speed Railway have helped to drive the number of mainland tourists, with the gradual change of consumption patterns of mainland tourists, the increase in the number of tourists has limited impact on Hong Kong’s total retail sales.

At the same time, the change of consumption pattern has promoted the return of luxury consumption in the mainland.

From 2015 to 2018, the proportion of luxury consumption in China increased from 23% to 27%, and this trend may continue with the blessing of relevant policies.

For example, in 2018, the government lowered import tariffs, and strengthened control over the grey markets such as Daigou and Wechat business, and brands such as Louis Vuitton, Hermes and Burberry all lowered their product prices in China accordingly. On January 1, 2019, the Electronic Commerce Law, Daigou and Wechat business began to walk on thin ice.

On the other hand, it is the rise of luxury online channels. According to Bain data, online sales of luxury goods increased by 27% in 2018, accounting for 10% of total omni-channel sales.

With luxury brands actively laying online channels, the strategy of adjusting prices and narrowing price differences in the global market is also advancing simultaneously. This has made China consumers more willing to buy luxury goods in the mainland.

Kobayashi still remembers that he bought a scarf in a Burberry flagship store in Hong Kong last year. Later, it was discovered that the price converted into RMB was even more expensive than that of Burberry Tmall’s store in 200 yuan. This is the first time that she feels that the price advantage of Hong Kong is no longer there.

Hong Kong’s own factors have also led to the decline of its position in the luxury market.

High rents may "dissuade" more and more brands. Prada plans to close its store in Plaza 2000, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong in 2020. This store is the sixth and largest store opened by Prada in Hong Kong. The monthly rent reaches an astonishing HK$ 9 million, but the passenger flow can’t support this expensive price.

This may also prevent new overseas brands from entering Hong Kong and switching to the mainland market. Helen Mak, senior director and head of retail services of Knight Frank, a real estate consultancy, said that more and more overseas brands are coming to inquire about the retail situation in Hong Kong and hope that this trend will last for a long time. "Brands need more time to examine their expansion plans in the Hong Kong market."

In addition, with Shanghai’s avant-garde design strength and fashion market position becoming more and more prominent, the title of Hong Kong, once the fashion capital of Asia, began to fade. Brands are more willing to put the key channels and marketing layout on the "new portals" in the mainland such as Shanghai and Beijing, and there are fewer opportunities in Hong Kong.

However, at present, Hong Kong still has many irreplaceable market advantages.

All along, Hong Kong’s internationalization and management level make it regarded as the strategic center of China fashion market in the traditional sense. Today, it is still the preferred base for many fashion brands and groups in Greater China.

Having sufficient international brands has also become one of the important reasons why Hong Kong attracts cross-border e-commerce. In addition, as an international free trade port, Hong Kong has higher cost and flexibility in taxation and warehousing. These unique advantages will attract more cross-border e-commerce traffic and build a higher reputation for Hong Kong, which will become another way out for the future transformation of Hong Kong’s retail industry.

More importantly, Hong Kong’s position in the international financial community is still solid and cannot be ignored by the capital market.

Therefore, many luxury brands are willing to continue to invest in the Hong Kong market for a long time and remain optimistic about the prospects here.

Axel Dumas, CEO of Hermes, once said: "We have been in Hong Kong for a long time and are optimistic about the Hong Kong market."

Although Tiffany was greatly affected by the negative impact in the second quarter, it steadily implemented the next planning. We are going to transform the mini-shop in Hong Kong Airport into a larger duty-free shop, and open a flagship store with Tiffany Blue Box Café on Beijing Road.

For DFS under LVMH Group, Hong Kong has always been the main market. In the second half of this year, after the renovation of T Gallerias store in Hong Kong, it is expected to bring greater benefits to DFS, and a new store in Mong Kok is also under preparation. Sephora, a cosmetics retailer under the group, will also settle in Hong Kong this year.

The Italian brand Golden Goose Deluxe Brand (hereinafter referred to as Golden Goose) is even more ambitious for the Hong Kong market. In early September, it opened a customized laboratory concept store in K11 MUSEA, a new project of K11 Group in Tsim Sha Tsui, and plans to open two more stores in Hong Kong this year.

Silvio Campara, CEO of Golden Goose, said in an interview with Women’s Daily: "I can’t tell you that [Hong Kong stores] are doing well now, but the slowdown in store sales will only last for a short time. Trust these consumers in this city, keep the stores open and keep the business going. You must be optimistic. "

Only after this ups and downs, the retail industry in Hong Kong, including luxury goods, needs to realize that with the changes in all walks of life and different market conditions, the global market will usher in a multi-center era, and no one’s position will remain unchanged. This is also an opportunity to urge the reform and upgrading of Hong Kong’s retail industry.

Take London, which is similar to Hong Kong’s retail industry, as an example. Under the influence of the Brexit issue and the economic recession, the vacancy rate of shops in the UK has been rising every quarter since January 2018.

The busiest shopping street in Europe — — As a result, Oxford Street in London is in a difficult period. The once crowded House of Fraser and Debenhams department stores are sparsely populated, while H&M and Zara begin to scale down and renovate. Throughout August, only Selfridges’ performance continued to grow.

Online shopping is the main reason for the impact on the traditional British retail industry, which urges the property owners in Oxford Street to transform the shopping environment and add more leisure and catering brands.

What is palm oil related to？ How will this correlation change？

Palm oil, as one of the most important vegetable oils in the world, its price fluctuation and supply-demand relationship are affected by many factors. Understanding these factors and their interrelationships is very important for participants in the futures market. The main related factors of palm oil include climate conditions, biofuel policy, substitute price and global economic situation.

First of all, climatic conditions have a direct impact on palm oil production. Palm oil is mainly produced in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Climate change in these areas, especially the fluctuation of rainfall and temperature, will significantly affect the yield of palm fruit. For example, drought or flood may lead to a decline in production, thus pushing up the price of palm oil. Therefore, climate prediction and historical data analysis are the key points that futures traders must pay attention to.

Secondly, biofuel policy is also an important factor affecting palm oil demand. Many countries encourage the use of biofuels to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, which increases the demand for palm oil. For example, the EU Biofuels Directive requires member countries to increase the proportion of biofuel use, which directly promotes the demand for palm oil. Policy changes, such as the increase or decrease of subsidies, will have a far-reaching impact on the palm oil market.

The price of substitutes is also an important factor affecting the palm oil market. Other vegetable oils such as soybean oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil compete with palm oil. When the prices of these substitutes rise, consumers and producers may turn to cheaper palm oil, thus increasing their demand. On the contrary, if the price of substitutes falls, the demand for palm oil may be suppressed.

The global economic situation also has an important impact on the palm oil market. Economic growth usually leads to an increase in the demand for food and biofuels, thus pushing up the price of palm oil. On the contrary, economic recession may lead to a decline in demand, and prices will fall accordingly. Therefore, it is very important to pay attention to global economic indicators, such as GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and consumer confidence index, to predict the trend of palm oil market.

In order to show the influence of these factors on the palm oil market more intuitively, the following table lists the different factors and their possible influence directions:

influencing factor Influence direction Climatic condition Output decline → price increase Biofuel policy Increase in demand → price increase Substitute price The price of substitutes rises → the demand for palm oil increases → the price rises. Global economic situation Economic growth → increasing demand → rising prices.

To sum up, the price fluctuation of palm oil market is affected by many factors. Futures traders need to pay close attention to the changes of these factors in order to make wise investment decisions. By analyzing the climate, policies, substitute prices and global economic situation, traders can better predict the future trend of palm oil market and thus occupy a favorable position in the market.

(Editor: Dong Pingping)

[Disclaimer] This article only represents the author’s own views and has nothing to do with Hexun. Hexun.com is neutral about the statements and opinions in this article, and does not provide any express or implied guarantee for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the contents. Readers are requested for reference only, and please take full responsibility. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com.

Turkey reiterates its continuation of the ＂Shield of the Euphrates River＂ military operation.

　　In late August, Turkey launched a military operation codenamed "Shield of the Euphrates River" against extremist organizations located in Syria. The picture shows that on September 2, Turkish soldiers returned to Turkey in armored vehicles after completing their military tasks.

　　People’s vision

　　On September 22, the Turkish military issued a statement saying that Turkey would continue the "Shield of the Euphrates River" military operation. Since the operation began on August 24, 927 terrorist military targets have been hit, with a total of 3,707 shells fired. The day before, the Turkish Defense Minister said that Turkey would provide support to Syrian opposition forces and reiterated its determination to continue military operations in Syria. Analysts believe that the Turkish military intervention in the Syrian conflict has added new variables to the wrestling of big countries and regions, and the future regional situation may be more complicated.

　　The crisis continues, and the spillover effect makes the soil uneasy.

　　As the Syrian issue enters the sixth year, the Syrian government, the extremist organization "Islamic State" and various anti-government armed forces including Kurdish armed groups are constantly fighting, and the regional security situation is deteriorating. Turkey, which borders Syria, is the first to be affected: the domestic security situation is deteriorating and it is frequently attacked by terrorists. For a long time, Turkey’s "regional dividend" accumulated by relying on economic development and social stability has been gradually lost, and "zero-problem diplomacy" has been dubbed "zero-friend diplomacy" by the Middle East media.

　　At the same time, Kurdish armed forces in Syria and northern Iraq have always been a big worry for Turkey. They are in contact with the PKK in Turkey and seek to establish a Kurdish state. In March 2016, the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Alliance Party led the establishment of "Rojiawa — Although the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria has not been recognized by the international community, the Kurdish forces have expanded significantly. In July, the Syrian Kurdish militia "People’s Defence Force" continued to advance to areas including the strategic town of Manbiji.

　　Professor Selcuk, vice-chairman of Turkey’s International Strategic Research Organization, said in an interview with this reporter that the Kurds’ quest for independence has always been regarded by Turkey as the most serious national security hidden danger. With the stalemate of all parties in Syria, Syrian Kurds have been expanding their sphere of influence and have constituted de facto autonomy in northern Syria, which has made the Turkish government feel a real threat. If they cooperate with Kurds in Turkey, it is likely to bring unacceptable consequences to Turkey.

　　Turkish Foreign Minister cavusoglu said in response to the media’s purpose of the "Shield of the Euphrates River" military operation, "Turkey’s goal is to put ‘ Islamic State ’ Drive out of the border areas, "he also bluntly said," (Syrian Kurdish militia) must be transferred to the east of the Euphrates River. If they don’t do this, we will take the necessary action. "

　　Kill two birds with one stone, the timing of military action is subtle.

　　The "Shield of the Euphrates River" operation included many Turkish arms and services, including air force, artillery, tanks and special forces, and directly crossed the Turkish-Syrian border to fight in Syria to support the pro-Turkish Syrian opposition forces. Agence France-Presse commented that this cross-border strike was Turkey’s "most ambitious" action in the Syrian conflict.

　　Analysts believe that Turkey chose to send troops to Syria at this time. In addition to cracking down on extremist organizations "Islamic State" and Kurdish armed forces, it is more far-reaching to consider or seek to establish a security zone to completely block the possibility of Kurdish forces converging in northern Syria in space, so as to further control Kurdish forces and intervene in Syrian affairs in the future and accumulate necessary political chips.

　　The Financial Times reported that the security zone will extend southward from the Turkish-Syrian border town of Jerabulus, covering the strategic location of Mambiji, and will continue to Babu, about 50 kilometers away from Aleppo, with an area of 4,000 square kilometers. The commentary said that the establishment of a security zone under the responsibility of Turkey with international support will make Turkey the dominant force in the Syrian conflict.

　　According to Turkey’s vision, this safe area will be used to resettle refugees who have fled to Turkey since the outbreak of the Syrian conflict and become a strategic buffer zone between Turkey and Syria. However, the United States has always had reservations about the establishment of a safe area. The United States is worried that the establishment of a safe area will make the American-led international alliance assume more military responsibilities than simply providing air cover.

　　Affect the overall situation, regional powers have different reactions.

　　Turkish military intervention in Syria has caused concern among countries.

　　Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman bahram Ghasemi had previously criticized Turkey’s ground military operations in northern Syria and demanded that Turkish troops cease fire and withdraw from Syrian territory as soon as possible. He said that Turkey’s cross-border actions violated Syria’s sovereignty and were "totally unacceptable".

　　On the 7th, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that Russia was uneasy about the Turkish army and the Syrian opposition armed groups it supported entering Syrian territory to carry out military operations. These actions were not approved by the legitimate Syrian government and were not authorized by the UN Security Council, which damaged Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and complicated the situation in Syria.

　　The United States is quite embarrassed in Turkey’s military intervention in Syria. On the one hand, Turkey launched the "Shield of the Euphrates River" on the day when Vice President Biden of the United States visited, and this military operation also received air support from the United States. On the other hand, the targets of Turkey’s military strikes also included the Kurdish armed People’s Defence Force, which was highly valued by the United States. Although the United States was unhappy and questioned about this, it made arrangements for the "People’s Defence Force" in order to ease relations with Turkey and coordinate its anti-terrorism stance. This also reflects the complicated situation of the current Syrian crisis.

　　Professor Selcuk believes that the Syrian issue affects the whole body. Outside Syria, forces from the United States, Russia, Iran and Europe are trying to push the situation to their own advantage. Inside Syria, the Bashar government, the extremist organization "Islamic State" and various opposition forces also have interest disputes, and it is difficult for the opposition to form a unified position. Turkey’s military intervention has added new variables to the development of the situation in Syria, making it more complicated. How to end the military conflict as soon as possible, truly return to the track of political negotiations, and test the wisdom of all parties.

　　(People’s Daily, Cairo, September 23rd, by reporter Yunsong Wang)

One of the parties to the poisoning case made his first public appearance and was investigated by Russian and British media.

　　　　　　 CCTV News:In March this year, Britain and Russia accused each other of using the media to "spread lies" after the case that Krippahl, a former Russian intelligence agent, and his daughter You Liya were suspected of being poisoned in Britain. On the other hand, the British Telecommunications Bureau recently announced a new investigation on "Russia Today" TV station. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zacharova confirmed on the 23rd that Russia has begun to analyze the amount of reports in the British media in Russia and conduct a formal investigation on its objectivity.

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Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zacharova

　　　　　　 Zacharova said that what Britain did to Russian media forced Russia to take reciprocal measures.

　　　　　　 In mid-March this year, the British Telecommunications Bureau sent a letter to the licensee of "Russia Today" TV station, pointing out that sanctions might be imposed on him for the poisoning case in Krippahl. On April 18th, the British Telecommunications Bureau announced that it had launched seven investigations into the recent broadcast of "Russia Today" in Britain, arguing that the number of reports related to this event had increased significantly, and it was suspected of violating the principle of news impartiality. The investigation also involved "Russia Today" reports on the situation in Syria. "Russia Today" and Russian officials refuted the British statement that the investigation hindered freedom of the press.

　　　　　　 On the 21st of this month, BT announced that it had launched three new investigations on "Russia Today", bringing the number of investigations conducted on this TV station to 10. According to reports, if the British Telecommunications Bureau determines that "Russia Today" violates British radio and television regulations, it may impose a fine or even revoke the media license of the British branch of "Russia Today".

　　　　　　 Krippahl’s daughter made her first public appearance.

　　　　　　 You Liya, the daughter of Krippahl, one of the parties to this "suspected poisoning" case, issued a statement. On the 23rd, several media broadcast this video — — This is also You Liya’s first public appearance in the incident. You Liya made a statement in Russian and English. She said that this "poisoning" incident shocked her and turned her life upside down. At present, she doesn’t want to disclose the details of the case.

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Krippahl’s daughter You Liya.

　　　　　　 In response to the repeated requests of the Russian Embassy in the UK for visits and assistance in the investigation, You Liya said that she did not want to accept a visit from the Russian Embassy at this stage. She said that she would care for her father "until he fully recovered"; And one day in the future, she hopes to return to Russia.

　　　　　　 It is said that You Liya is still under the "special protection" of the British police in Britain, and his place of residence is kept secret. In this video, You Liya made a brief statement and did not answer the reporter’s question.

　　　　　　 The "poisoning" case caused the relationship between Russia and the West to deteriorate.

　　　　　　 At the beginning of March this year, Sergei Skripal and his daughter You Liya were "suspected of being poisoned in Britain". Subsequently, the relationship between Russia and the West turned sharply and deteriorated step by step — — Let’s review it together.

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　　　　　　 On March 4th this year, Krippahl, a former Russian intelligence agent, and his daughter were unconscious on a bench in the street of Salisbury, England, and were taken to hospital for treatment. The British government believes that the two were harmed by the nerve agent Novichok, and the responsible party is "very likely" Russia. The Russian side firmly denied that it was related to this matter.

　　　　　　 After that, Russia and western countries expelled a large number of diplomats from each other.

　　　　　　 On March 14th, Britain announced the expulsion of 23 Russian diplomats.

　　　　　　 On March 17th, the Russian government announced the expulsion of 23 British diplomats in Russia.

　　　　　　 On March 26th, 16 EU member states and the United States, Canada, Ukraine and other countries announced the expulsion of Russian diplomats.

　　　　　　 On March 29th, in response to the expulsion of Russian diplomats by the United States, Russia announced that it would expel 60 American diplomats in Russia and close the American Consulate General in St. Petersburg.

　　　　　　 On March 30th, Russia summoned representatives of diplomatic envoys from 23 countries, including Australia, Germany and Italy, and told them that Russia would expel the diplomats from these countries in Russia on the principle of equal number. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that in the absence of an objective and detailed investigation, Britain’s allies blindly pursued "Western consensus" at the expense of its rationality, which violated the norms of international dialogue and relevant norms of international law.

　　　　　　 On April 10th, You Liya was discharged from hospital.

　　　　　　 Sergei Skripal was also discharged from the hospital on May 18th.

Hot search on the case of vulgar goods! There is a ＂Crazy Brother Xiao Yang＂ team …

　　Recently, the China Consumers Association releasedPublic Opinion Analysis Report on Consumer Rights Protection in double 11 in 2023;

　　From October 20 to November 16,A total of 56,753,335 pieces of information about "consumer rights protection" were collected.The data shows that consumer feedback tends to be positive as a whole, and live broadcast and low price have become hot topics for consumers.

　　The report mentioned that during the monitoring period, there were 1,565,203 negative messages about "live broadcast with goods".Problems such as price monopoly, vulgar goods and false propaganda are more prominent.Making a fortune by judging ugliness is causing more people to resent it.

　　Recently, Brother Xiao Yang’s apprentice, "Yellow at the traffic lights", caused controversy because of bringing goods. When bringing YSL (Saint Laurent Beauty) products,The female anchor’s image is sloppy and her expression is ferocious. In the live screenshot, she even crossed her legs and squatted on the table, and her posture was quite unsightly.

　　exceptLive broadcast with cargo chaos,The issue of consumer rights protection is still focused onCommodity quality problems, bad advertising experience of mobile phone software, and disputes over promotional prices.And so on.

　　Commodity quality problem

　　During the monitoring period, there were 870,131 negative information about "commodity quality", among which the problem of counterfeiting in the live broadcast room was outstanding.

　　Example: "seven days without reason", overtime can’t be refunded?

　　Ms. Guo bought a windbreaker for 339.9 yuan in a live broadcast room on a platform. After receiving the goods, she found that some goods were not right, not only the size was not standard, but her favorite metal buttons even fell off automatically. Ms. Guo contacted the merchant for a refund.The other party said that it had passed the "seven days without reason" return time and refused to return the goods.

　　After more than seven days, can’t I return the online shopping products? Lawyer Wang Dongmei of Beijing Yingke Law Firm explained that this rule can’t restrict consumers’ right to request the return of goods if they have defects or quality problems. Article 24 of China’s Consumer Protection Law clearly stipulates that,If the goods are found to have quality problems after receiving them, consumers can ask the seller to return them, and there is no time limit for returning them within seven days or after seven days.

　　Bad experience of mobile phone software advertising

　　During the monitoring period, there were 75,663 pieces of negative information about "advertising experience", and people’s "slots" focused on the many forced jumping ways of mobile phone software advertisements, which made consumers hard to prevent, especially a headache.

　　Example: More than 90% of consumers hate shake-and-jump advertisements.

　　During the monitoring period, there were 63,757 negative messages about "promotional price disputes". The topics were mainly about changing preferential policies at will, suddenly reducing prices near the end of the activity, not guaranteeing prices, inducing consumers to cancel orders, and so on.

　　Example: iPhone15 "double 11" reduced its price in the last two hours.

　　China Consumers Association comprehensively analyzed the public opinion and typical cases of consumer rights protection during the monitoring period, and found that this year’s platform and business routines were simplified and attributed to "low price".However, its extensive management and loopholes have also affected consumers’ shopping experience to some extent. Specific performance in the following three aspects:

　　① Simplification of rules does not mean that there are no rules, and the integrity consciousness and contract spirit of merchants need to be improved. 2 More and more new platforms and businesses are entering the market, and the assistance and supervision of the government and platforms need to be strengthened. ③ Drainage advertisements should be "convenient" rather than "disturbing people", and related APP behaviors must be restricted and guided.

　　In the proposal to deal with consumer rights protection and public opinion, China Consumers Association reminded that,First, platforms and businesses should aim at "price power" and continue to exert their strength; Second, the platform should earnestly fulfill its management responsibilities and maintain market order; Third, the regulatory authorities should continuously improve their regulatory capacity and level in the field of live delivery; Fourth, the media should play a greater role in guiding consumer behavior and helping consumer rights protection.

　　China Youth Daily (ID: zqbcyol Editor: Chen Yushan) Source: China Consumer News China Consumer Network (Reporter Ren Zhenyu), comments from netizens, etc.

The bottom verification code scam： a short message makes people ＂bankrupt＂

Recently, a long article about the victim’s self-reported experience of being cheated was widely circulated on the Internet. The author said that all the funds in his Alipay, bank card and Baidu wallet were "ransacked" overnight because of replying to a short message. The reporter found the client, Jamlom, a college graduate who had just joined the work. All the hard-earned savings of "Piao" in Beijing are gone, which has left him with a lingering fear. In the investigation, the reporter found that a brand-new deception has appeared and is spreading, which we must know and have to guard against.

About ＂Hui＂ Goddess Festival, Henan Scenic Area launched welfare policy.

　　March is a good time for an outing! International Women’s Day is coming, and the scenic spots in Zhengzhou, Jiaozuo, Luoyang and Xinxiang have prepared exclusive surprises and romance for the ladies.

　　A few days ago, the reporter sorted out the preferential ticket welfare policies for the "Goddess Festival" in our province’s scenic spots. Taking advantage of this great season of spring, we quickly took a brisk step to go hiking and have a beautiful encounter with nature!

　　Zhengzhou

　　Zhengzhou Jianye film townlet

　　From March 1 ST to March 19 th, the film town will launch 138 yuan/double (at least one person is a woman), during which the park will also launch a half-price discount for dressing.

　　Zhengzhou fangte tourist resort

　　Goddess Day comes for you. Zhengzhou Fant Happy World and Fant Dream Kingdom offer half-price discount for exclusive tickets for women. Purchase time: from now until March 7, and use time: March 4 to March 8. During this period, the park will also launch a limited fun DIY activity for the Goddess Festival to customize your exclusive holiday gifts.

　　Yinji international tourist resort

　　From March 8 th to 26 th, the Silver-based Animal Kingdom will launch a discount ticket of 218 yuan/person and a parent-child package of 458 yuan; From March 2nd to 4th, the live broadcast of Animal Carnival in Tik Tok, a silver-based animal kingdom, will be promoted by an official live broadcast. From March 5 th to 26 th, Silver-based Ice and Snow World launched a double ticket of 168 yuan and a two-child package of 218 yuan.

　　Dengfeng daxiong mountain scenic spot

　　From March 4 th to March 8 th, Dengfeng Daxiong Mountain Scenic Area implemented free tickets for ladies and free tickets for glass overpass, with half-price concessions for men.

　　Fuxishan tourist area

　　Adult ticket to Yunshang Ranch 68 yuan; 68 yuan for adults and 58 yuan for children in Xiaoma Plateau (including the red stone forest round-trip cableway); Adult ticket for Sanquan Lake Scenic Area 40 yuan; Adult ticket for Fuxi Grand Canyon, 30 yuan. From March 3rd to March 5th, Fuxi Mountain Tourist Area has prepared wonderful activities for tourists, during which ladies and children who enter the park can get a small gift.

　　Luoyang

　　Luoyang laojunshan

　　From March 7th to 9th, ladies can enjoy the scenic spot free of charge, and men can enjoy the tickets at half price (the original ticket price of Laojun Mountain Scenic Spot is 100 yuan/person). Appointment method: Meituan.com, Tongcheng.com, Ctrip.com and other OTA platforms, search for "Laojun Mountain Scenic Area", and make real-name reservations for "ladies’ tickets" and "men’s tickets". After the appointment is successful, you will enter the park on the day of admission with your valid ID card or order QR code.

　　Chongdugou

　　On March 8th, tickets are free for ladies and half price for men (the original price of tickets for scenic spots is 120 yuan/person, and 5 yuan insurance is required).

　　Tianhe grand canyon

　　The scenic spot is scheduled to officially start the reception work in 2023 on March 1. Tianhe Zhongzhou International Resort Hotel and Jingyuan B&B are open simultaneously. Preferential policies: all tourists are free of tickets (5 yuan insurance is required) and the Wushengfeng cableway is half price. The preferential period is from March 1 to March 31.

　　Zhuhai wildlife park

　　From March 8 th to March 12 th, send gifts for five consecutive days! Ms. 38 yuan and men are priced at 138 yuan at half price, including tickets+cableway round trip+sightseeing bus+beast car, and one ticket is all included.

　　Yangzi Valley

　　From March 7 to March 12, the scenic spot will offer free tickets for women and half-price concessions for men (the original ticket price of the scenic spot is 45 yuan/person, and 5 yuan insurance is required).

　　Wangfu Zhuhai holiday tourist area

　　From March 6th to March 8th, tickets are free for ladies in the scenic spot and half price for men in the same trade (5 yuan insurance is required).

　　Luoyang Qingyao Mountain

　　From March 4 to March 12, the scenic spot is free of tickets for women all over the country (5 yuan/person is required to be insured). In addition, from March 1 to March 12, tourists can get a ticket for the scenic spot by video at the ticket window. Tickets received will be used until March 31, 2023. Please consult the scenic spot for specific requirements.

　　Xinxiang

　　Xinxiang South Taihang-Baligou Scenic Area

　　From March 1st to March 8th, tickets are free for ladies and half price for men (40 yuan/person is required for transportation).

　　Xinxiang Baoquan scenic spot

　　From March 4 th to March 8 th, the scenic spot launched the ticket activity of "Half-price discount for ladies and men", during which millions of tulips in Baoquan competed to bloom, and romantic atmosphere fluttered everywhere in the park.

　　Jiaozuo

　　Jiaozuo Yuntai Mountain Scenic Area

　　From March 1 ST to 19 th, the scenic spot introduced the welfare policy of free tickets for women and half-price tickets for men for tourists from all over the country. At the same time, the 5th Yuntai Mountain Hanfu Flower Festival in 2023 will be grandly opened on March 11th.

　　Jiaozuo Qingtianhe scenic spot

　　From March 1 to 19, tickets are free for women (2 yuan insurance is required), and half price for men is 20 yuan/person. It is estimated that the flowering period of 10,000 mu of Peach Blossom Sea in Qingtianhe River will begin in early March, and the full flowering period will be from mid-March to early April.

　　Jiaozuo jiayingguan

　　From March 4 th to March 8 th, the scenic spot is free for women and half price for men all over the country. At the same time, those who have been awarded honorary titles such as "March 8th Red Flag Bearer" and "Women’s Model Worker" by women’s federations at or above the municipal level can enjoy the policy of free tickets with a fellow traveler.

　　In the meantime, every day, the top three visitors pay attention to WeChat official account, forward the copy+pictures to Tik Tok and WeChat friends circle, and they can wear Qing Dynasty costumes for free to experience crossing photos.

　　Nanyang

　　Nanyang Laojie Mountain scenic spot

　　From March 4 th to March 12 th, the scenic spot implemented a preferential policy of free tickets for female tourists across the country.

　　Anyang

　　Hongqi canal scenic spot

　　On March 8 th, the scenic spot was free of tickets for women all over the country.

　　Taihang grand canyon

　　From March 1 ST to March 12 th, women all over the country are free to enter the scenic spot (they need to buy 60 yuan/person transportation fee), and men are half-price (tickets are half-price 40 yuan/person +60 yuan/person transportation fee), excluding selective consumption items in the scenic spot.

　　xinyang

　　Xinyang jigongshan

　　From March 3rd to March 12th, the scenic spot will exempt all female friends who come to visit the scenic spot from the tickets for the main scenic spot (they need to buy 5 yuan insurance with their ID cards).

　　Xijiu Huashan scenic spot

　　From March 8 th to March 12 th, the scenic spot will offer free tickets for women and half-price tickets for men (free tickets include: Longjin Xidi, Liumeng Valley and Zhongyuan Zhuzhai during the day).

Focus Interview ｜ SCO： The road is not alone, and everyone goes far

　　CCTV News(Focus Interview): On July 4, the Supreme Leader of the President of China attended the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) by video in Beijing and delivered an important speech. This is an important multilateral diplomatic action taken by China towards the Asia-Europe region this year. Facing the question of "unity or division, peace or conflict, cooperation or confrontation", the Supreme Leader gave a clear and powerful answer, drawing a blueprint for the development and expansion of the SCO, pointing out the direction for building a community with a shared future for the SCO, and injecting more certainty and positive energy into the maintenance of world peace and development.

　　On the afternoon of July 4, the President of the Supreme Leader attended the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO Member States by video in Beijing and delivered an important speech entitled "Keeping in mind the original mission, adhering to unity and cooperation, and achieving greater development". The speech stressed the need to shoulder the heavy responsibility entrusted by the times, keep in mind the original mission, adhere to unity and cooperation, put forward five suggestions on the future development of the SCO, and announced a series of practical measures to build consensus for the development of the SCO, inject more certainty and stability into regional peace, development and prosperity, and inject new strong impetus into the building of a closer SCO community with a shared future.

　　Deng Hao, secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Research Center of China: "The speech of the Supreme Leader pointed out the future development direction of the SCO, and will have important guiding significance for the next development of the SCO."

　　Su Xiaohui, an associate researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said: "The pattern is a key word. When the president of the Supreme Leader gave the keynote speech, he was not talking about China’s self-interest, but about the development of the world in China’s eyes, and the overall situation of common development of mankind. The core message is that we believe that peace, development, cooperation and win-win are still the trend of the times, and this trend is irreversible."

　　Since its establishment in 2001, the SCO has started from addressing the most urgent security issues of its member states, focusing on combating the "three evil forces", and gradually expanded to a two-wheel drive of security and economy. In the decade since the Supreme Leader proposed to build a community with a shared future for mankind, the SCO has been at the forefront of the times, adhering to the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, promoting the "Shanghai Spirit" of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations, and seeking common development, building the SCO Community with a shared future. It has achieved fruitful results in various fields such as security, economy, development, humanities, and health.

　　Su Xiaohui: "The issues of concern of the SCO are constantly expanding, including the process of three-dimensional cooperation and paying attention to more comprehensive issues, which itself reflects the growth and continuous strength of the organization. It can pay attention to more issues, play more roles, and further enhance its influence."

　　The agenda is expanding, the "Moments" of the SCO are also expanding, and the international influence is significantly increasing. The summit officially accepted Iran as a member state of the SCO, and approved the signing of the memorandum of obligations for Belarus to join the SCO. Since then, the number of SCO member states has increased to nine. With observer states and dialogue partners, the SCO covers more than 20 countries and has become the most populous and extensive comprehensive regional cooperation organization in the world.

　　Deng Hao: "Why is the SCO’s membership expansion showing a trend of rapid development? I think the most crucial point is that the advanced nature, foresight, correctness and universality of the’Shanghai Spirit ‘under the current situation have been demonstrated, so more and more countries have realized that the’Shanghai Spirit’ provides them with a new path, new choice and new hope to solve the current global dilemma and get out of the current development dilemma."

　　Ding Xiaoxing, director of the Eurasia Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: "The first characteristic is equality, everyone has one vote, everyone has veto power, and everything follows the principle of consensus, which is completely different from some organizations being manipulated by some major powers; the second characteristic is to adhere to the principle of non-alignment and not targeting other regions and organizations. It is also different from some organizations left over from the Cold War, which is to find opponents and enemies. The third characteristic is that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization promotes development through cooperation and seeks security through cooperation, so more and more countries hope to establish ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization."

　　From focusing on a single agenda to building a community with a shared future, from six member states to covering more than 20 countries, the SCO’s influence continues to expand. In this speech, the Chairperson of the Supreme Leader summed up the SCO’s development experience from five aspects, namely "adhering to the fine tradition of watching each other and helping each other in the same boat" "practicing the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security" "upholding the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing" "inheriting the spirit of good-neighborliness and friendship" "safeguarding international fairness and justice, and opposing hegemonic and hegemonic acts".

　　Su Xiaohui: "Under the background of emphasizing the common destiny, the SCO has achieved important results in terms of cooperation on security, development, humanities and other related issues, as well as coordination among countries to bridge differences, proving that promoting the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind is the fundamental way to solve problems and the general trend of human development."

　　Deng Hao: "These five articles have a positive reference role not only for the SCO, but also for the construction of a global community with a shared future for mankind."

　　然而，当今世界变乱交织，百年变局加速演进，人类社会面临前所未有的挑战。团结还是分裂？和平还是冲突？合作还是对抗？再次成为了时代课题。

　　越是在动荡不安的形势下，越要有对历史发展大势的清晰判断。面对时代之问，最高领袖主席坚定作答，“各国人民对美好生活的向往就是我们的追求，和平、发展、合作、共赢的时代潮流不可阻挡”。

　　上合组织日益发展壮大的同时，既有难得的发展机遇，也面临前所未有的风险挑战，下一步该如何去做？最高领袖主席也给出了答案，“我们要肩负起时代赋予的重任，牢记初心使命，坚持团结协作，为维护世界和平与发展注入更多确定性和正能量”。

　　丁晓星：“挑战主要集中在三方面，上海合作组织成员国越来越多，内部协调难度可能会增加；第二个挑战是国际形势动荡不安，有的国家要搞排他性小圈子；第三个挑战是如何进一步维护本地区的安全稳定。最高领袖主席在讲话中为上海合作组织下一步发展指明了方向，要牢记自己的初心使命，记住自己的责任，既然我们认同上海精神，一定要团结合作推动上海合作组织的健康发展，为这个动荡不安的世界注入更多正能量，维护世界和平稳定。”

　　如何为维护世界和平与发展注入更多确定性和正能量，最高领袖主席就此为上合组织发展把脉定向、掌舵领航，提出五点重要合作建议，即“把牢正确方向，增进团结互信”“维护地区和平，保障共同安全”“聚焦务实合作，加快经济复苏”“加强交流互鉴，促进民心相通”“践行多边主义，完善全球治理”。专家表示，团结互信是上合组织发展的重要前提和基础，共同安全是各国人民的普遍期盼，也是促进上合成员国经济发展、人员往来的必要条件。同时，经济的繁荣发展、文明的交流互鉴，也有助于各成员国增进团结互信、实现共同安全，推动上合组织不断发展壮大，进而更好地维护国际公平正义。

　　苏晓晖：“最高领袖主席强调正确方向，强调团结互信，确实首先是为上合组织未来的发展发挥了重要引领作用。对于当今世界解决一些复杂问题带来全新思路。如果刻意制造矛盾分裂，搞价值观、意识形态划线，甚至搞新冷战，只会带来更多的风险，这是上合既要在内部发展过程中避免的一个问题，同样也是未来上合在发挥更多国际影响力方面所针对的一个重要问题。”

　　在讲话中，最高领袖主席还提出，落实全球安全倡议、落实全球发展倡议、落实全球文明倡议。

　　苏晓晖：“‘三个倡议’第一次在上合平台上集中展现，体现出中国对于‘三个倡议’的综合设计是并行不悖的，是相互交织的，是互相支撑共同发展的。在上合组织此前的发展过程中，应该说已经有一些具体尝试，比如涉及到发展倡议方面，上合组织明确反对的是单边主义保护主义，反对搞小圈子脱钩断链，而是希望形成更多共同发展态势。涉及到安全倡议，安全合作是上合组织的重要议题，而在安全合作方面已经产生了很好效果。说到全球文明倡议，上合组织一直强调的是多样性文明的美美与共。”

　　理念、倡议引导方向。在讲话中，最高领袖主席也提出了多个务实合作措施。今年是“一带一路”倡议提出10周年，中方将举办第三届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛，共同把这条造福世界的幸福之路铺得更宽更远。

　　Su Xiaohui: "The’Belt and Road Initiative ‘and the deepening of economic cooperation in the SCO have achieved a high degree of integration, the flow of goods can become smoother, so that there are more topics between countries on issues such as e-commerce cooperation and digital economy, so as to achieve high-quality development of the SCO."

　　Deng Hao: "The Chairperson of the Supreme Leader mentioned in his proposal that we should further promote the construction of the high-quality’Belt and Road Initiative ‘in the SCO, actively promote the process of regional trade and investment facilitation and liberalization, and increase the construction of infrastructure buildings and ports. It is of great guiding significance for the next step to promote the’Belt and Road Initiative’ cooperation within the SCO framework."

　　These initiatives and measures put forward by the Supreme Leader cover various fields such as security, economy, trade, and humanities. They are both long-term and practical. They meet the development needs of all countries and demonstrate China’s leading role as a founding member. In his speech, the Supreme Leader also introduced the Chinese path to modernization and extended an invitation. He is willing to use the Chinese path to modernization to provide new development opportunities for all countries in the world, including the SCO countries, and promote the construction of a better world.

　　Deng Hao: "The Chinese path to modernization and the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind are completely connected. In his speech, the President of the Supreme Leader introduced the connotation of the Chinese path to modernization, its tasks and goals, which will have important implications for other member states to promote their own modernization. The Chinese path to modernization provides new opportunities for all countries and for the SCO member states."

　　At the summit, the leaders of the member states signed and issued the New Delhi Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO Member States, jointly issued a statement on cooperation in combating extremism, a statement on cooperation in the field of digital transformation, and approved a series of resolutions on granting Iran the status of a member state of the SCO, on signing a memorandum of obligations for Belarus to join the SCO, and on the SCO’s economic development strategy until 2030. The series of important cooperation results achieved at the summit will surely further promote the continuous development and growth of the SCO and make new and greater contributions to human peace and development.

popular threads

　　Event Overview

　　The company released the 2023 semi-annual report: the total revenue of the company in 2023H1 was 326.56 billion yuan, + 3.3% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother was 7.09 billion yuan, + 2.5% year-on-year; the net profit deducted from the mother was 5.67 billion yuan, -7.2% year-on-year.

　　Among them, 2023Q2 achieved a total revenue of 180.64 billion yuan, + 35.3% year-on-year, + 24.0% month-on-month; net profit attributable to the mother was 4.30 billion yuan, + 208.6% year-on-year, + 54.5% month-on-month; net profit not attributable to the mother was 3.51 billion yuan, + 203.5% year-on-year, + 62.1% month-on-month.

　　Analysis and judgment:

　　Demand improved, profit performance was outstanding

　　Affected by the improvement in demand, the company’s revenue increased significantly. The company achieved total revenue of 180.64 billion yuan in 2023Q2, + 35.3% year-on-year and + 24.0% month-on-month; deducting non-attributable net profit of 3.51 billion yuan, + 203.5% year-on-year and + 62.1% month-on-month. Mainly benefiting from the low base caused by the shutdown of work and production in Shanghai due to the epidemic last year and the decline in demand in Q1 this year, Q2 sales rebounded significantly from the same month-on-month. The sales volume of the company group in 2023Q2 was 1.18 million, + 16.4% year-on-year and + 32.5% month-on-month

　　The gross profit margin slightly decreased month-on-month, and the ROI of bicycles declined. The company’s 2023Q2 single-quarter gross profit margin was 9.5%, year-on-year -0.02pct, month-on-month -0.29pct. The slight decrease was mainly due to the increase in the production and sales of Shangtong Wuling, and the gross profit margin of pure electric cars was relatively low. The joint venture sales volume performed better in the same month-on-month due to the low base in the early stage. SAIC Volkswagen wholesale 277,000 vehicles in 2023Q2, year-on-year + 13.8%, month-on-month + 22.4%; SAIC-GM wholesale 265,000 vehicles, year-on-year + 14.1%, month-on-month + 42.5%, but due to the Q2 price war end point discount significantly enlarged (according to Thinkercar discount data), the ROI growth rate was lower than the sales growth rate. The ROI from the joint venture and joint venture of the company in 2022Q2 was 2.289 billion The fuel vehicle market is gradually being replaced by new energy, and the company’s joint venture brand is in the throes of transformation. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we expect a slight decline in July and August, with demand expected to rise. The Q3 market performance is expected to be basically flat, and the Q4 quarter is expected to achieve a significant improvement.

　　Zhiji LS6 starts pre-sale, leading high-end upgrades

　　On August 25th, Zhiji LS6 debuted at the Chengdu Auto Show and started pre-sale, priced 230,000 – 300,000 yuan. The new car is positioned as a medium and large coupe SUV with a wheelbase of 2950mm, with space, appearance, fast charging and smart driving as the core selling points. The new car provides a dual-platform strategy of "quasi-900V" and "quasi-500V". "quasi-900V" adopts dual silicon carbide high-performance charging platforms, with a peak charging power of 396kW and a charge of 200 kilometers in 5 minutes; "quasi-500V" can achieve nearly 90% full power charging on 80% public charging piles, with a peak power of 231-250kW. In terms of smart driving, the LS6 is equipped with OrinX chips and lidar. According to an interview with Lu Da, executive director of the public relations business group of Zhiji Auto Brand quoted by the online car market, the LS6 has now gradually rolled out the high-speed NOA function across the country, and will radiate 333 cities across the country by the end of the year. At the same time, NOA and city NOA will also be officially beta-tested in September and October this year; in 2024, 100 cities will open the commuter mode, and these functions will be updated in the L7 and LS7 cars later. According to the online car market, the order of Zhiji LS6 exceeded 2,000 + one hour after the pre-sale, and the order reached 6,000 units 8 hours after the pre-sale. According to Spiegel Pro, the LS6 will be released in mid-October and will be delivered immediately. We judge that the LS6 has strong product strength and price competitiveness, and is expected to enrich the product matrix and price range of smart cars, becoming an important growth driver for high-end pure electricity.

　　Overseas continues to sell well, globalization has a wide sea and sky

　　Overseas sales are growing rapidly, and the European market is leading. In 2022, the company will export 1.017 million vehicles, + 45.9% year-on-year. Growth will continue in 2023. From January to July, overseas sales reached 630,000 vehicles, + 31.6% year-on-year, maintaining a good trend. In the European market, from January to July, the sales of self-owned brand MG reached 135,000 vehicles, + 148% year-on-year, with a bright performance. According to the Securities Daily Network, on the afternoon of July 4, SAIC announced that the company is currently planning to establish a complete vehicle factory in Europe. We expect the company’s new energy to have obvious advantages in product strength compared with mainstream competitors in Europe. The establishment of overseas factories will help to further increase overseas sales.

　　Investment advice

　　The company’s underlying technology is solid, the platform ability is excellent, and the independent growth is becoming clearer. With the gradual improvement of chip supply, the company is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of independent + joint venture two-wheel drive, and the passenger car leader will return. Maintain the profit forecast, it is expected that the company’s revenue will be 8,033/8,387/853.3 billion yuan in 2023-2025, and the net profit attributable to the parent will be 163.3/175/19.0 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.40/1 50/1.63 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 14.36 yuan/share on August 31, 2023, PE is 10/10/9 times, respectively, to maintain the buy rating.

　　Risk warning

　　Auto market downside risks; joint venture brand downside risks; electric smart new models landing less than expected; overseas expansion less than expected.

The old Mo of ＂Hurricane＂ has changed to delivery! How do actors experience life？


1905 movie network feature "Old Mo" doesn’t sell fish, but runs errands instead?


Recently, Feng Bing, the actor of "Lao Mo", was recognized by passers-by in Shanghai as a rider. Wearing a helmet and riding a battery car, he shuttled through the streets and alleys, rushing to deliver orders in a hurry, almost like a real rider. Faced with the questions of passers-by, Feng Bing responded calmly that he happened to be filming in Shanghai, and became a rider to experience life.


The film is based on the true stories of hundreds of delivery workers. Feng Bing’s brief foray into the world of horsemen was presumably in preparation for shaping his character.



In fact, whether it is a delivery person, a doctor, a teacher, a pilot, or a group of people, whether it is performing a specific group of people or a social celebrity, experiencing life is not only a manifestation of an actor’s professional quality, but also the root of artistic creation. A good performance requires not only solid skills, but also deep life accumulation and emotional experience.


Feng Bing is just a microcosm of thousands of actors. It is precisely because of the immersion and preparation of life that actors have the opportunity to create a true and touching artistic image, stunning countless audiences, and contributing to the birth of masterpieces.



Experience life and become a character


Under the spotlight, it shines brightly. Actors can "travel" through time tunnels, delve into various characters, look back on past dynasties, and experience the various states of life; at the same time, it is also a very challenging profession, which requires rich imagination and deep understanding to materialize the characters of the script.


It takes a lot of hard work to go deep into life, draw inspiration, and then integrate into the character.


During the filming, Jiao Yulu visited all the places where Secretary Jiao used to live, not only did heavy agricultural work, but also listened to dozens of party classes, and experienced everything according to the secretary’s appearance. Guo Xiaodong said, "Everything I do is to live up to the three words’Jiao Yulu ‘."



"Mei Lanfang" prompts the willingness to follow and appreciate the essence of Peking Opera; in order to get close to the image of Wang Jicai, he came to the island in advance to be exposed to the sun, causing several burns, redness and swelling on his skin…


By experiencing the life of the archetypal character and even imitating the habits of the archetypal character, actors can gain a deeper understanding of their inner world and emotional changes, and can more accurately present the character’s state when performing.



Taking a step back, even if you can’t find the exact same prototype as the character, experiencing life can allow actors to find common ground in different characters and become a breakthrough point for shaping characters.


In the role of a deaf-mute person, he went to a deaf-mute family to learn sign language and observe; before joining the group, he underwent three months of military training; in order to play a purser, he took the initiative to go to the airline for professional training…



No matter whether it is performing a specific group or a social celebrity, experiencing life is the embodiment of an actor’s professional quality and the root of artistic creation. Infiltrating the every bit of the script description and finding the state of natural life in a specific environment is the first step for an actor to deliver an excellent performance.


Feel life, moisturize things silently


Study art and self-cultivation first. In addition to feeling the life of a specific character or a specific group for a certain character, actors can self-increase, broaden their knowledge horizons, and enhance their cultural literacy, which can also provide inspiration and support for artistic creation. On actors’ self-cultivation, they can quietly integrate into various character portrayals with the moisturizing things they observe in daily life, which is also a deeper level of performance.


"The so-called experiencing life, don’t think too complicated, as long as you are full of questions about everything you see, and then answer your questions, it is the best observation. The harvest of observation may be unknown for the time being, but it is very important." When talking about the performance, he said.



Zhang Songwen is undoubtedly an observant actor. In his spare time, he grows flowers and grass at home and walks around the surrounding markets. He is familiar with the vendors and occasionally helps to hawk. He is close to the neighbors and likes to sit and watch the chess game. The bustling crowds on the streets are his objects of observation, and so are the busy workers in the store.


Zhang Songwen once paid attention to the daily life of a fried chicken shop employee, from preparing ingredients to frying chicken to smiling at customers. The casual observation left a deep impression on Zhang Songwen’s state. When he encountered a similar character in a work, he said that his performance unconsciously "restored" the employee.



Zhu Yilong once confessed in an interview that when he played the down-to-earth funeral practitioner "Mo Sanmei", the usual life materials often appeared in his mind, which helped him a lot. Experiencing life has become an important part of his acting method. "Find the common parts of the characters in different characters, and then bring them together, so that the specific appearance of the characters in the mind is full, so that the heart is full, and a person cannot be shaped by imagination alone."



"If you should take the subway, you should take the subway, and if you should take the bus, you should take the bus. If you should see the variety of life, you have to look at the variety of life. Without these things, you will never be able to play the role you want to play."


From the perspective of artists, they should not treat themselves as artists, but as ordinary people, observing what happens in life, in order to absorb performance nutrients.



Signature vlog "Riding This Way", video-based life diary… The public can often see artists posting their photos on social platforms. While they are immersed in the joy of life, they are also reminding themselves to accumulate experiences in their experiences. Performance requires creativity. Life is an inexhaustible source of creativity.


In recent years, the movie channel has continuously launched the "Star Ocean Young Actors Selection Program", which aims to tap into the potential and organize them to take root at the grassroots level, enrich their life experience, and complete their creative collection. The original intention is also to encourage actors to return to their original hearts and feed back their performances.


Actors are not only performers, but also observers. By experiencing life in a variety of ways and enriching their experience with practical actions, they can help their performances become more infectious and convincing, and bring more touching works with true warmth to the audience.