Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said at a recent press conference that in May, China’s national economy continued to maintain a generally stable, stable and positive development trend, production demand was basically stable, employment continued to improve, prices rose moderately, the supply and demand structure and enterprise benefits continued to improve, and the endogenous driving force for economic growth continued to increase. Analysts pointed out that although the current world economy has picked up, there are still many uncertainties. In this context, China’s economy can continue to improve steadily, which not only reflects the correctness of China’s reform and opening-up measures and economic development ideas, but also brings confidence and positive energy to the world economy.
There are many bright spots in economic operation
In May this year, China’s economy once again continued its previous positive trend in key indicators.
According to Mao Shengyong, the current economic operation mainly presents five characteristics:
First, the industry grew steadily. The stability of economic operation is increasing day by day, 1-mdash; The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.9% in May; In May, the service industry production index rose by 8.1% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point faster than last month.
The second is the optimization of demand structure. From the consumption point of view, upgrading consumption keeps a relatively fast growth momentum. From the perspective of investment, although the overall investment growth rate has declined, the investment structure is being optimized.
The third is the improvement of economic benefits. 1— The profit ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size in April was 1-mdash; 3.4 percentage points faster in March; The operating profit of the service industry above designated size increased by 8.4%, and the fiscal revenue and tax revenue also maintained rapid growth.
Fourth, employment and prices are stable. In terms of employment, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 4.8% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and the same period last year. From the price point of view, CPI rose by 1.8% year-on-year in May, maintaining a moderate upward trend. PPI rose by 4.1% in May, and remained at a reasonable level on the whole.
Fifth, kinetic energy accelerates conversion. From the industrial point of view, in May, the added value of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing increased by 12.3% and 9.4% respectively, and the growth rate was 5.5 and 2.6 percentage points faster than that of industries above designated size. From the perspective of service industry, the growth momentum of modern service industry is relatively good, 1-mdash; In April, the operating income of strategic emerging service industries increased by more than 18%.
"Judging from the comprehensive production indicators, efficiency indicators, structural indicators and people’s livelihood indicators, China’s economy is generally stable and stable, and the development trend is continuing." Mao Shengyong said.
Strong increase in domestic demand
In the early morning of 14th, the Federal Reserve announced the second rate hike this year, which once again added uncertainty to the global economy. What impact does this have on China’s economy?
Mao Shengyong responded by saying that in recent times, major developed economies have withdrawn from quantitative easing, international trade frictions have also intensified, and the imbalance and instability of the world economy have increased. At the same time, we must also see that the growth of major economies is relatively stable, and most economies have a good growth momentum. He said that the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike on the world economy, including global capital flows, has been partially released. Judging from China’s past experience and reality, the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike on China’s economy is limited in the short term.
"Internally, the contribution of consumption to China’s economic growth has been stable at around 60% in recent years, and its basic role is getting stronger and stronger." Mao Shengyong said that in the internal and external demand contribution of economic growth in 2017, domestic demand contributed more than 90%, and domestic demand contributed more in the first quarter of this year. At this stage of China’s economic development, the expansion of consumption scale, the upgrading of consumption structure and the promotion of consumption contribution are inevitable development trends. Even if there is some trouble outside, it is no problem for China’s economy to maintain steady and rapid growth as long as the article on domestic demand is done well.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher in the Macroeconomic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, also pointed out in an interview with this reporter that the latest data shows that consumption plays an increasingly important role in enhancing the resilience of China’s economic growth. Consolidating the basic position of consumption driving economic growth requires us to conform to the trend of consumption upgrading and let the demand be released continuously.
Reform accumulates new kinetic energy
Analysts pointed out that the key to observing China’s economy is to grasp the future evolution logic of supply-side reform, and 2018 is regarded as a crucial year for supply-side reform.
According to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the micro leverage ratio continued to decline. At the end of April, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year; The inventory of commercial housing continued to decrease. At the end of May, the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide was 560.1 million square meters, a decrease of 6.77 million square meters from the end of last month and a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. Enterprise costs continue to decrease, 1-mdash; In April, the cost per 100 yuan of main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 84.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.21 yuan over the same period of last year; Investment in the short-board sector grew rapidly, 1-mdash; In May, the investment in ecological protection and environmental management, agriculture and public facilities management increased by 36.7%, 16.1% and 8.6% respectively, which was 30.6%, 10.0% and 2.5% faster than the total investment respectively.
In Zhang Liqun’s view, whether the micro-leverage ratio continues to decline, or the investment in short-board areas grows rapidly, or the output of new energy vehicles increased by 56.7%, integrated circuits increased by 17.2%, and industrial robots increased by 35.1% in May, it means that the effect of supply-side structural reform in China is increasingly manifested.
"The economic data in May performed well, reflecting that China’s economy is becoming more and more stable, which contains more factors of high-quality development. But at the same time, we should also see that China still has a lot of ways to climb the hill and cross the ridge to improve the quality of development. To this end, we must benchmark and compare with the requirements of high-quality development, further deepen the structural reform of the supply side, break down the institutional and institutional obstacles that restrict the improvement of the quality of economic development, and strive to consolidate the various foundations of high-quality development. Only in this way can we continue to accumulate momentum for sustained and healthy economic development. " Zhang Liqun said. (Reporter Wang Junling)
People’s Daily Overseas Edition (03rd Edition, June 18, 2018)