Yang Guangwang Beijing January 26 th news (Reporter Sun Yuxiang Intern Gao Jiashuang)Thanks to favorable financial policies, the real estate sector continued to rise sharply on the 26th.
On the 26th, the Wind real estate index rose by 3.03%. Of the 112 constituent stocks, 99 rose and only 9 fell. The whole day’s turnover was 5.585 billion shares, with a turnover of 26.147 billion yuan.
Recently, the central bank, the General Administration of Financial Supervision, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments have successively issued policies conducive to real estate financing, or actively expressed their support for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
According to market analysts, the ability and space of financial support for real estate are expected to be further extended. The favorable policies and positive attitudes of various departments are expected to promote the restoration of confidence in the real estate market and provide room for valuation repair.
On the morning of January 26th, the deployment meeting of the coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that accelerating the implementation of the coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing was effective, supporting the development and construction of real estate projects, and meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership equally. All localities should focus on projects, pay close attention to research and put forward a list of real estate projects that can be given financing support, coordinate the issuance of loans by financial institutions within their respective administrative areas, and accurately and effectively support reasonable financing needs.
On January 25th, the State Council Press Office held a press conference, in which Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of the State Financial Supervision and Administration, introduced the follow-up work arrangements in the real estate field. On the evening of January 24th, the General Administration of Financial Supervision and the People’s Bank of China jointly issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Management of Operating Property Loans.
The press conference on the 25th put forward four key points on the recent financial work in the real estate sector. They are: accelerating the implementation of the coordination mechanism of urban real estate financing, and pushing the list of real estate projects that can be given financing support to financial institutions within their respective administrative areas under the coordination mechanism led by the city government.
Guide financial institutions to implement the management requirements of operating property loans, especially to clarify that the operating property loans issued can be used to repay the stock loans of housing enterprises and issue open market bonds before the end of this year.
Continue to do a good job in personal housing loan financial services, and further optimize personal housing loan policies such as down payment ratio and loan interest rate due to the city’s policy.
It is required to vigorously support the construction of "three major projects" (affordable housing construction, "flat and emergency dual-use" public infrastructure construction, and urban village reconstruction) and form a physical workload as soon as possible.
"The new regulations on operating property loans are expected to ease the pressure of capital outflow of enterprises in 2024, which is conducive to the inflow of corporate financing cash flow and to improving the confidence of the main body of the industrial chain." According to the research report of CITIC Securities, in addition, demand-side policies such as declining mortgage interest rates will also help to support the real estate market.
The research report of CICC believes that the ability and space of financial support for real estate may be further extended in combination with the recent monetary policy adjustment (RRR reduction) of the central bank. In addition to certain achievements in the field of property security, the financing support for real estate projects under the principle of marketization and rule of law is expected to be more accurate and sufficient in the future, and the development enterprises can obtain a certain increment in operating property loans, which is expected to have a positive effect on relieving potential cash flow pressure. The "three major projects" are also expected to get more financing support besides PSL tools to support the acceleration of physical work.
The open source securities research report also said that since 2024, the "three major projects" have accelerated significantly, or will stimulate real estate investment.
"A series of statements made by relevant ministries and commissions are expected to promote the restoration of confidence in the real estate market and provide valuation repair space for the sector." Huatai Securities Research Report also pointed out that the sustainability of repair depends on the speed and extent of fundamental repair.
In view of the investment prospects of the real estate sector, the open source securities research report said that the current valuation level, allocation ratio, market expectation and industry fundamentals of the real estate sector are at a low level, and the policy window period is worthy of attention. "Continue to be optimistic about strong credit housing enterprises with high investment intensity, excellent layout area and marketization mechanism."
The research report of CICC suggests paying attention to high-quality dividend stocks and "three major projects" concept stocks. At the same time, if the recently introduced supply and demand policies gradually form a joint force to promote the actual improvement of fundamentals in the medium term, the average-quality housing enterprises with valuation advantages will also benefit.
At the same time, the State Council State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) recently stated that it will assess the market value management of central enterprises, and many institutions expressed optimism about real estate central state-owned enterprises.
"The valuation and performance of real estate central state-owned enterprises are double-bottomed, and the layout value appears." Guojin Securities Research Report said that at the valuation level, the current A-share real estate sector PB valuation has dropped to 0.65 times, typical central state-owned enterprises such as A-share Poly Development PB valuation is 0.59 times, Hong Kong stock China Overseas Development PB valuation is 0.34 times, and China Resources Land PB valuation is 0.66 times, all of which have fallen to the bottom of history; On the performance level, the short-term performance of real estate enterprises has been under pressure due to the decline of gross profit margin and the increase of impairment. However, high-quality central state-owned enterprises such as Jianfa, Huafa and Yuexiu still have positive growth in sales at the operating end, which supports the improvement of future performance.
"The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will assess the market value management of central enterprises. It is expected that high-quality central state-owned enterprises will boost market confidence by increasing the dividend ratio (increasing the dividend rate under low valuation), increasing the holdings of major shareholders, and repurchasing companies, and the value of the bottom layout will appear." Guojin Securities Research Report said.
CITIC Securities Research Report also emphasizes that the operating cash flow of central enterprises in real estate continues to be positive, which has a solid foundation for increasing the dividend ratio. It is expected that the cash dividend ratio of outstanding central enterprises in 2023 will increase compared with previous years, and they are optimistic about development enterprises with high-quality assets and operational capabilities and the head asset operation platform.(Yang Guang Capital Eye)
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