标签： 上海品茶

"As a forecaster, I hope I can understand the secret and draw the forecast closer to the reality." Sun Jun, the chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, has been a forecaster all his life, from a handsome young man to an old comrade with white temples. From using pencils to using artificial intelligence, he has been understanding the secret all his life.

On December 1, 2023, Sun Jun judged the closing ceremony weather of the Pacific Games at the Solomon Islands Meteorological Bureau. Figure/Jing Hao

Exploration-the scientific mystery in the clouds

"Experienced ups and downs, find the law in the changing situation. When the forecast is successful, it is not too joyful; When the forecast fails, don’t be too upset, and constantly explore and improve the forecast. " Sun Jun said.

After doing one thing all his life, Sun Jun thought about it for a while and simply gave the word "worth it".

"The flood in Jilin in 2010, the torrential rain in Beijing on July 21, 2012, the torrential rain in Henan in 2021, and the extreme rainstorm in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in 2023 …" Talking about the past, many weather processes are clearly visible in Sun Jun’s mind.

He often gets to the bottom of the weather. And this curiosity began from childhood. When I was a child, Sun Jun saw a neat cloud boundary in the dark sky: the sky was overcast on one side and Wan Li was clear on the other. He is full of curiosity: what is this?

This "why" continues to work. "Dealing with the weather is also my initial intention to explore scientific issues." Sun Jun said.

Find problems in forecasting, solve problems in scientific research, and apply research results to business, thus further improving forecasting accuracy. Sun Jun observed, discovered, analyzed and verified over and over again, and carried out a cycle from forecasting to scientific research to forecasting.

In July, 2021, due to the rich water vapor brought by the typhoon landing, a torrential rain occurred in Henan. Sun Jun and his team once included the rainstorm affected by typhoon landing in the research scope.

……

Time and time again, the scientific research topics were condensed-warm rainstorm, typhoon rainstorm and extreme rainstorm. Sun Jun and his team found clues of scientific problems from the forecast process.

After continuous research, scientific research has also made a series of progress. In the diagnosis of extreme rainstorm, the water vapor condition, dynamic condition and thermal condition are diagnosed and analyzed, and the abnormal meteorological factors causing extreme rainstorm are screened.

In 2023, the forecast accuracy reached a new high, and the score of 24-hour rainstorm increased to 98% compared with the mainstream model, reaching the highest level in history.

It is the confidence brought by continuous exploration that allows him to confidently give the conclusion that "it won’t rain" in the face of complex weather situation in the forecast of Hangzhou Asian Games.

Responsibility-Forecast and Early Warning in Storm

"I always say that human life is related to the sky, and the sky here refers to the weather." Weather is closely related to the safety of life and property. Therefore, he has a strong sense of mission and responsibility. "If the forecast is accurate, we can better prevent and respond, and we can keep safe." Sun Jun said.

In order to catch up with time, he is always the first to arrive at work when he is on duty. "Sun Jun is a respected old forecaster and very dedicated." Zhang Tao, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said.

Sun Jun recalled the flood in Jilin in July 2010, and was faced with the judgment of whether the reservoir needed flood diversion and whether the dam needed blasting. "This is a major test." After careful analysis, Sun Jun and his colleagues accurately judged the precipitation level.

In July 2023, a rainstorm occurred in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Sun Jun "recalled" the weather process in his memory, thinking that it was similar to the "July 8" rainstorm in Henan, and it was extremely extreme, so he raised the forecast precipitation. Later, it was proved that this adjustment was correct.

With global warming and frequent extreme weather, many data exceed the extreme value, which breaks through the forecaster’s original cognition and increases the difficulty of forecasting.

Adhering to a scientific and rigorous attitude, Sun Jun is not afraid to challenge the numerical model prediction. "It’s always calm when things change." Yang Shunan, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, commented on Sun Jun this way.

Colleagues gave Sun Jun a nickname, "Sun 500", which came from a bold and cautious forecast. From June 17th to 21st, 2010, a rainfall process occurred in the northeast of Jiangxi. Sun Jun gave the forecast conclusion of the maximum precipitation of 500mm. This is a bold forecast, which is much higher than the conclusion of the numerical model. After analysis and verification, his prediction conclusion is accurate. Sun Jun teased that if the forecast was not accurate, it would be called "Sun 250".

"Because there is always uncertainty in forecasting, there is always pressure." Under the calm appearance, Sun Jun also has his own pressure. On many nights when rain is predicted, he will wake up and look at the sky. On the day of duty, he will be slightly gaunt when he is full of energy.

Pursuit-the precision of time and space

In the late 1980s, Sun Jun joined the Central Meteorological Observatory. On the topographic map with provincial boundaries, Sun Jun draws the weather map with a 2B pencil and red and blue pencils. "At that time, there was a lack of forecast data and there was no precipitation data to refer to. A clever woman can’t cook without rice. " Sun Jun said.

With the development of science and technology, with the blessing of satellites, radars and automatic weather stations, the observation data and information are more abundant. "The temporal and spatial resolution of the forecast is more refined." Sun Jun said.

The technology is changing, and Sun Jun’s love for forecast maps remains unchanged. "Drawing weather maps is a pleasure." In his view, synopsis is a subject dealing with data. In order to better compare historical cases in forecasting, Sun Jun keeps the weather maps and key physical quantities of many weather processes in mind.

"To be an excellent forecaster, you need not only excellent professional knowledge, but also knowledge of astronomy, geography, politics and economics." The understanding of social economy also enables Sun Jun to better serve the weather forecast in production and life. Before Spring Festival travel rush this year, Sun Jun predicted the cold wave weather in advance. Considering the impact of road icing on Hubei, Henan, Anhui and other places, he recorded an interpretation video.

In 2025, Sun Jun reached the age of retirement. At present, in addition to doing a good job in weather forecasting, he has also shifted his focus to personnel training: leading the team to tackle key scientific research problems and teaching … Liu Yi, the global meteorological office of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said, "There is laughter everywhere."

At the same time, Sun Jun also participated in global monitoring, forecasting, service and other work, making forecasts in a larger world and passing on his experience to more people.

"Now, the pursuit of weather forecasting is fixed-point, fixed-time and quantitative. As long as the accuracy rate has not reached 100%, we must continue to explore and be a dream catcher forever." Sun Jun said.

(author:Xu Nenyu Editor: Zhang Lin)

Past, present, future,

Everyone can only walk with you for a while,

Sooner or later, it will be separated.

pass

　 　 Special feature of 1905 film network In Fenyang County, Shanxi Province in 1999, Shen Tao, a sunny girl, was sweating heartily in a disco, surrounded by two boys who also liked her: Max Zhang Sheng and Liang Jianjun.

　 　 But the identities of two people are very different, one is a miner and the other is a coal mine owner.

　 　 This love triangle between a woman and a man turned the two brothers against each other, and Shen Tao was entangled, and the long-term balance would eventually be broken.

　 　 In the end, Shen Tao chose Zhang Jinsheng, who was chasing money. When she got married, someone chose a distant place.

The background of two people’s wedding photos has become a prediction of Zhang Jinsheng’s future.

　 　 In the past timeline, director Jia Zhangke showed his love view:

at present

　 　 In 2014, Zhang Jinsheng, divorced from Shen Tao, was welcomed in Shanghai. He remarried with his son Dollar and started a new life in Shanghai.

　 　 Liang Jianjun, who had been working in a coal mine for a long time and was terminally ill, returned to his hometown with his wife and children at the last moment. In desperation, he found Shen Tao to borrow money for treatment.

　 　 Middle-aged people are involuntarily standing on the boundary of where will you go. Shen Tao’s father sat quietly at the railway station and went away alone, and he was turned over by all the monks.

　 　 Dollar returned to Fenyang to attend the funeral, taking him back to the last place where Grandpa sat and feeling home and affection, life and death.

　 　 However, the son of westernization education has changed greatly since childhood, and the mother and son meet and don’t know each other. Shen Tao also knew that he couldn’t stay with him, just gave him the key to the house.

"The big one is the gate, and the small one is the living room. This is your home. You should have a bunch of keys and come back at any time. "

　 　In the current timeline, director Jia Zhangke showed his view of family:

future

　 　 In Australia in 2025, Dollar, who can only speak English, has grown up, but he is separated from his father, Max Zhang. He is eager to get out of his father’s control and get "freedom" without even knowing what it means.

　 　 At that time, Chinese had become a world language. Dollar came to study in Chinese school and met Mia, a Chinese teacher played by Zhang Aijia.

　 　 After the divorce of Mia and her ex-husband, she was also in an unstable state, which happened to connect with Dollar, who entered the rebellious period and wanted to pursue freedom, and they had an unforgettable love.

　 　 Dollar, who lacked maternal love since childhood, finally found the essence of love in older Mia.

　 　 In the future timeline, director Jia Zhangke showed his world outlook:

　 　 From the CD trial in Fenyang, Shanxi Province in 1999, to the iPad that mother and son listened to on the train in 2014, and then to the vinyl record that Mia played for Dollar in 2025, Sally Yeh’s "Treasure" strung together the emotional sustenance and family clues of the characters in the film. In the lyrics, "I can’t bear to lose you, I hope things will always turn around, shake hands and wave goodbye, and I will wait for you all my life in both places." No matter the separation of Shen Tao and his son, or the gathering and parting of roles, it has hit home.

　 　 Dollar has been hanging the key given to him by his mother, but he can’t remember his mother’s name, only remembering that her name is Tao, which means wave.

　 　 When Dollar gently called out his mother’s name "Tao" in the midsummer on the other side of the ocean, Shen Tao stopped Bao jiaozi’s hand as if telepathically in his hometown of Fenyang, Shanxi.

　 　 Old, she slowly walked out of the empty room, and in the snowy winter, she danced "Go West" alone beside Wenfeng Tower, which she danced with Zhang Jinsheng and Liang Jianjun when she was young.

　 　 Where will the love between the lost Dollar and Mia go? Will Dollar go home to find his mother who has been waiting for him for the New Year? What will happen to his father-son relationship with Zhang Jinsheng? … …

　 　 The director didn’t give an answer, just as Shen Tao asked the question at the beginning of the film:

What is the problem between us?

Algebraic problems?

Or geometry?

　 　 From the algebraic problem of time flying, to the geometric problem of spatial distance, people come and go, people go and people return, and everything has no answer.

　 　 The mountains and rivers are as old as before, and the river flows east. The mountains and rivers remain the same, so it is difficult for old friends to stay.

　 　 As Zhang Yibai said, everyone has their own mountains may depart, and only Jia Zhangke photographed them.

As a popular family car model, it is deeply loved by consumers. However, like any model, Volkswagen also has some shortcomings. This paper will list 20 fatal shortcomings of Volkswagen LaVida from many aspects, such as space comfort, reliability, maintenance and so on, to help consumers understand this model more comprehensively.

Although Volkswagen LaVida is relatively large in overall body size, the legroom of its rear passengers is relatively small. For consumers who need to ride in the back row frequently, the comfort may be affected to some extent.

The seat adjustment function of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively simple, lacking some advanced adjustment functions. This may limit the individual needs of passengers in terms of riding posture and comfort.

The storage space of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively small, especially in the trunk. This may limit the flexibility of passengers in carrying luggage and shopping, which is not practical enough.

Although the power of Volkswagen LaVida is not bad, its power performance may be average compared with some competitors. The power output during acceleration and climbing is relatively smooth, which may not satisfy the pursuit of driving pleasure and passion.

The suspension system of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively hard to adjust, which may affect the ride comfort, especially when dealing with potholes or bumpy roads.

The safety configuration of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively general, and it may lack some advanced safety functions and auxiliary systems, such as active brake assistance and blind spot monitoring. For consumers with high requirements for improving driving safety, they may need to consider other models.

Although Volkswagen LaVida has made some optimizations in engine technology and power transmission system, compared with some competitors of the same level, its fuel consumption may be slightly higher, which will increase the use cost.

The design of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively conservative, lacking unique design elements and fashion sense. If consumers have higher requirements on the personalization and attractiveness of vehicle appearance, Volkswagen LaVida may not be the best choice.

The rear seat function of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively simple and cannot be folded or adjusted, which limits the flexibility of passengers in storage space and ride comfort.

Although Volkswagen LaVida performs well in terms of stability and maneuverability, its maneuverability may be slightly inferior to that of some competitors. If consumers have higher requirements for vehicle handling performance, they may need to consider other models.

Some consumers report that LaVida is relatively noisy when driving at high speed, especially in terms of wind noise and tire noise. Consumers who have high requirements for vehicle noise control may be dissatisfied with this.

Volkswagen LaVida has relatively few optional configurations and cannot be customized according to individual needs. If consumers have higher requirements on the choice and personalization of vehicle configuration, they may need to consider other models.

Some consumers report that the air output of the rear air conditioner of Volkswagen LaVida is small, which will affect the comfort of the rear passengers.

The rear passengers of Volkswagen LaVida can’t easily use USB interface to charge or connect devices. In modern society, it may be inconvenient for users who have multiple passengers using electronic equipment at the same time.

Some vulnerable parts of Volkswagen LaVida, such as brake pads and clutches, have high maintenance costs. This may increase the cost of vehicle maintenance and maintenance.

The interior design of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively conservative, lacking innovation and individuality. This may not meet the requirements of consumers with high interior design style.

Some consumers report that LaVida has some limitations in driving vision, and the front and rear views may not be wide enough.

The remote control key function of Volkswagen LaVida is relatively few, which may lack some convenient functions when approaching the vehicle, such as one-button start.

Volkswagen LaVida’s body warranty period is relatively short, which may have a certain impact on consumers’ after-sales protection.

Twenty, the price is relatively high:

Compared with some competitors at the same level, the price of Volkswagen LaVida is higher. For consumers who pay attention to cost performance, they may have to pay a certain premium.

Although Volkswagen LaVida is a family car model favored by consumers, it also has some fatal shortcomings from the aspects of cramped rear space and general power performance, limited safety configuration and general noise control. When purchasing LaVida, consumers should comprehensively consider its advantages and disadvantages and make the most suitable decision according to their personal needs and preferences.

Disclaimer: The above views only represent the author’s personal views, and the final car purchase decision should be based on your own actual needs and preferences. I hope this article is helpful to you!

On February 7th, the Porsche Taycan has been well received overall since its launch in 2019, but its range has been criticized, which is slightly inferior to that of luxury electric vehicles of the same level. The 2025 Taycan will significantly improve its range and performance, while optimizing its appearance and technology configuration.

In terms of appearance, the new Taycan has not changed much, mainly including new LED headlights and improved front fenders. The high-end version will have a new light strip running through the rear of the car, printed with a glowing red "PORSCHE" logo, and the low-end model will also be available for a fee. The TurboS will also add decorative vents on either side of the rear bumper, which will not have heat dissipation but are said to improve aerodynamic performance.

All versions of the Taycan will be replaced with new batteries. The capacity of the standard version has been increased to 83.6kWh. The optional high-performance battery pack is optional on the Taycan and 4S models, and the Turbo model is standard, and the capacity has been increased to 97.0kWh. The new battery uses a chemical formula with a higher nickel content, which significantly improves the capacity while maintaining the same size as the old model. Thanks to this, the new high-performance battery pack is about 9kg lighter than the old model. Although the new car configuration has been improved, the TurboS has reduced the curb weight by about 15kg.

Charging speeds have also been increased, with peak power up to 320 kilowatts, provided that it is connected to a powerful enough 800-volt DC fast charging pile. Fast charging is possible even when the battery is at a low temperature. The new car will also come standard with a 150-kilowatt DC/DC converter, further enhancing charging speeds on the 400-volt network.

Thanks to improved powertrain efficiency and a larger battery capacity, the new car’s range has also been improved. According to the European WLTP standard, the rear-drive version of the Taycan with a high-performance battery pack can reach a maximum range of 677 kilometers, an increase of 174 kilometers compared with the old model; the TurboS’s range has been increased from 467 kilometers to 631 kilometers.

Another major hardware change is the new rear motor, which is lighter and more powerful than before. It still has a two-speed transmission design to improve efficiency at high speeds. The rear-drive version maintains peak power at 402 horsepower, but no longer needs to activate ejection mode to get full power. Porsche estimates its 0-60 mph acceleration time at 4.5 seconds, which is 0.6 seconds faster than the old rear-drive version.

The power of the TurboS is increased, but it needs to be unlocked gradually by the driver. The base output of the two motors is increased to 764 horsepower, and the new "overspeed" function of the SportChrono package can release an additional 93 horsepower in 10 seconds, which is activated by the button on the steering wheel driving mode selector. The ejection mode can further release the power, and the peak power is increased to 938 horsepower and the peak torque reaches 1100 Nm (the corresponding figures for the old TurboS are 750 horsepower and 1,050 Nm).

In addition to the base model and TurboS, the Taycan 4S and Taycan Turbo will also continue to be available, the specific parameters have not been announced yet. Both the Taycan sedan and the CrossTurismo wagon will be available in the United States, but the latter does not have a rear-drive version.

Other hardware upgrades include air suspension and adaptive shock absorbers as standard in all versions. The anti-roll bar system is still available as an option, but the 48-volt electrical system is replaced by a new electro-hydraulic ActiveRide system. As well as suppressing roll, the system compensates for pitches and nods during acceleration and braking, and provides a so-called "lean-in" feature that allows the Taycan to tilt slightly when cornering (similar features are already available on some Mercedes models). Unfortunately, the new Taycan still does not have a single-pedal driving mode, which Porsche believes will affect the purity of the driving experience.

The interior of the new car has changed very little. New filters have been added to the optional passenger side screen, which can only be seen from the passenger seat, allowing for legal video playback while driving. The digital dashboard has also been redesigned, and can now display a prediction of the maximum charging speed supported by the car based on the current battery condition. The user interface features a new generation of AppleCarPlay +, which can control functions such as air conditioning. Drivers using Porsche’s own navigation system can also plan detailed routes around charging stations and target battery levels.

The price of the new car has also risen, the entry-level rear drive Taycan is now priced at $101,395 (IT home note: currently about 731,000 yuan), Taycan4S is priced at $120,495 (currently about 869,000 yuan), TaycanTurbo is priced at $175,595 (currently about 1.266 million yuan), TaycanTurboS is priced at $210,995 (currently about 1.521 million yuan), the cheapest is $113,095 (currently about 815,000 yuan) Taycan4CrossTurismo, the new car from the summer delivery.